Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ASU wins about 68% of the time at a number like ours.
HAW
Games
4
Plays per game
74.2
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-12.2 (114th, offence 111th, defence 108th)
Returning production
65% (pass 91%, rush 21%, receiving 52%)
ASU
Games
3
Plays per game
67.3
Drives per game
13.3
SP+
3.0 (60th, offence 73rd, defence 46th)
Returning production
16% (pass 5%, rush -5%, receiving 31%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
HAW
ASU
pass rate, all downs
68%1st
49%65th
pass rate, standard downs
61%1st
44%48th
pass rate, 1st down
61%2nd
50%22nd
no-huddle share
36%93rd
89%24th
pass rate, passing downs
79%5th
57%102nd
pass rate, red zone
67%2nd
50%21st
seconds per play (own drives)
25.6126th
27.691st
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
HAW offence
HAW offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.042
297
112 of 138
success rate
0.384
297
117 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.125
297
116 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.008
297
116 of 138
rush: success rate
0.433
297
85 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.869
297
94 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.117
297
105 of 138
pass: success rate
0.373
297
114 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.274
297
131 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.439
297
120 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.291
297
89 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.138
297
65 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.175
297
80 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
297
38 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.190
297
113 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.168
297
104 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.108
297
110 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.061
297
87 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.700
297
23 of 138
ASU offence
ASU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.058
202
105 of 138
success rate
0.416
202
97 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.396
202
18 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.018
202
110 of 138
rush: success rate
0.396
202
107 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.050
202
37 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.186
202
85 of 138
pass: success rate
0.447
202
65 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.743
202
27 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.463
202
97 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.318
202
67 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.690
202
122 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.198
202
101 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
202
50 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.600
202
88 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.163
202
96 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.104
202
104 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.059
202
81 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.000
202
109 of 138
HAW defence
HAW defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.213
268
124 of 138
success rate
0.466
268
126 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.227
268
70 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.250
268
131 of 138
rush: success rate
0.490
268
131 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.031
268
102 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.130
268
70 of 138
pass: success rate
0.435
268
103 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.447
268
47 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.526
268
128 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.306
268
95 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.437
268
134 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.110
268
3 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
268
83 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.773
268
98 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.134
268
30 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.075
268
29 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.060
268
65 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.800
268
117 of 138
ASU defence
ASU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.023
189
63 of 138
success rate
0.370
189
50 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.179
189
49 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.026
189
45 of 138
rush: success rate
0.394
189
62 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.838
189
34 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.096
189
60 of 138
pass: success rate
0.337
189
21 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.600
189
90 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.451
189
72 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.224
189
22 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.907
189
81 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.149
189
23 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.636
189
36 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.684
189
28 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.159
189
64 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.090
189
55 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.069
189
92 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.000
189
33 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs