Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). KU wins about 73% of the time at a number like ours.
MTSU
Games
4
Plays per game
61.8
Drives per game
9.5
SP+
-16.0 (122nd, offence 123rd, defence 118th)
Returning production
33% (pass 39%, rush 60%, receiving 26%)
KU
Games
3
Plays per game
73.3
Drives per game
12.3
SP+
1.0 (66th, offence 70th, defence 67th)
Returning production
18% (pass -1%, rush 14%, receiving 33%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
MTSU
KU
pass rate, all downs
56%17th
44%100th
pass rate, standard downs
49%18th
38%98th
pass rate, 1st down
52%17th
37%108th
no-huddle share
98%4th
24%106th
pass rate, passing downs
74%23rd
55%113th
pass rate, red zone
67%1st
30%106th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.048th
26.8103rd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
MTSU offence
MTSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.198
247
61 of 138
success rate
0.425
247
86 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.171
247
98 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.165
247
50 of 138
rush: success rate
0.448
247
70 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.880
247
89 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.239
247
72 of 138
pass: success rate
0.415
247
88 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.433
247
104 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.494
247
65 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.278
247
99 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.497
247
21 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.133
247
31 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.733
247
79 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.182
247
56 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.113
247
27 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.053
247
15 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.061
247
89 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.700
247
35 of 138
KU offence
KU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.202
220
59 of 138
success rate
0.441
220
70 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.429
220
10 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.097
220
80 of 138
rush: success rate
0.446
220
72 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.944
220
76 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.284
220
60 of 138
pass: success rate
0.413
220
90 of 138
pass: explosiveness
2.042
220
3 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.504
220
56 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.329
220
58 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.269
220
47 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.099
220
6 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.545
220
130 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.167
220
115 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.173
220
115 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.100
220
96 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.073
220
114 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.100
220
30 of 138
MTSU defence
MTSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.101
239
87 of 138
success rate
0.452
239
119 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.120
239
30 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.050
239
78 of 138
rush: success rate
0.463
239
118 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.008
239
94 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.186
239
83 of 138
pass: success rate
0.454
239
109 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.300
239
13 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.511
239
121 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.279
239
67 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.093
239
108 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.176
239
43 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.724
239
73 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.667
239
27 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.117
239
10 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.071
239
19 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.046
239
32 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.900
239
105 of 138
KU defence
KU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.068
195
26 of 138
success rate
0.308
195
8 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.235
195
73 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.157
195
15 of 138
rush: success rate
0.268
195
5 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.765
195
25 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.275
195
105 of 138
pass: success rate
0.377
195
50 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.718
195
113 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.364
195
10 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.221
195
19 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.132
195
6 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.250
195
122 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
195
84 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.238
195
60 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.200
195
117 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.144
195
127 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.056
195
57 of 138
opponent average starting field position
66.200
195
6 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs