Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). TA&M wins about 96% of the time at a number like ours.
MOST
Games
4
Plays per game
61.8
Drives per game
10.5
SP+
-17.6 (125th, offence 118th, defence 128th)
Returning production
31% (pass 5%, rush -3%, receiving 47%)
TA&M
Games
4
Plays per game
74.5
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
8.9 (39th, offence 38th, defence 44th)
Returning production
73% (pass 97%, rush 68%, receiving 61%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
MOST
TA&M
pass rate, all downs
47%83rd
51%49th
pass rate, standard downs
37%108th
42%60th
pass rate, 1st down
41%89th
38%104th
no-huddle share
80%45th
88%25th
pass rate, passing downs
68%48th
71%34th
pass rate, red zone
46%34th
35%85th
seconds per play (own drives)
25.8125th
29.266th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
MOST offence
MOST offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.101
247
94 of 138
success rate
0.401
247
106 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.229
247
67 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.023
247
108 of 138
rush: success rate
0.443
247
78 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.857
247
98 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.229
247
75 of 138
pass: success rate
0.363
247
120 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.756
247
24 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.494
247
66 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.195
247
136 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.994
247
87 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.160
247
59 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.714
247
91 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.368
247
41 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.166
247
101 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.113
247
118 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.053
247
69 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.600
247
24 of 138
TA&M offence
TA&M offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.043
298
111 of 138
success rate
0.443
298
67 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.074
298
131 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.094
298
81 of 138
rush: success rate
0.497
298
28 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.820
298
110 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.022
298
119 of 138
pass: success rate
0.385
298
107 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.405
298
112 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.478
298
86 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.366
298
34 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.216
298
57 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.166
298
65 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.850
298
15 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.360
298
43 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.161
298
93 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.077
298
46 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.084
298
130 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.400
298
116 of 138
MOST defence
MOST defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.227
296
128 of 138
success rate
0.517
296
138 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.023
296
7 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.107
296
97 of 138
rush: success rate
0.509
296
135 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.671
296
11 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.382
296
125 of 138
pass: success rate
0.508
296
132 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.487
296
54 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.581
296
138 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.360
296
124 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.332
296
125 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.160
296
31 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.870
296
127 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.969
296
110 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.149
296
48 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.088
296
51 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.061
296
66 of 138
opponent average starting field position
67.400
296
10 of 138
TA&M defence
TA&M defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.033
226
68 of 138
success rate
0.385
226
62 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.307
226
98 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.079
226
32 of 138
rush: success rate
0.366
226
44 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.841
226
36 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.218
226
92 of 138
pass: success rate
0.408
226
77 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.851
226
130 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.426
226
51 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.281
226
70 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.764
226
59 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.179
226
45 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.714
226
69 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.053
226
54 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.177
226
87 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.115
226
100 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.062
226
71 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.900
226
45 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs