Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). MSST wins about 97% of the time at a number like ours.
ULM
Games
4
Plays per game
67.8
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
-29.0 (138th, offence 131st, defence 138th)
Returning production
39% (pass 78%, rush 16%, receiving 26%)
MSST
Games
4
Plays per game
72.2
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
15.1 (18th, offence 10th, defence 47th)
Returning production
34% (pass 0%, rush 87%, receiving 28%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
ULM
MSST
pass rate, all downs
50%56th
48%70th
pass rate, standard downs
40%85th
47%34th
no-huddle share
95%14th
85%33rd
pass rate, 1st down
38%102nd
49%24th
pass rate, passing downs
75%16th
51%127th
pass rate, red zone
44%43rd
46%33rd
seconds per play (own drives)
27.985th
24.6131st
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
ULM offence
ULM offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.052
271
130 of 138
success rate
0.402
271
103 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.119
271
119 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.070
271
88 of 138
rush: success rate
0.432
271
86 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.879
271
90 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.082
271
134 of 138
pass: success rate
0.386
271
106 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.406
271
111 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.455
271
105 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.275
271
102 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.968
271
91 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.152
271
52 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.571
271
125 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.478
271
131 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.170
271
110 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.100
271
97 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.070
271
112 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.900
271
33 of 138
MSST offence
MSST offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.383
289
9 of 138
success rate
0.512
289
16 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.320
289
31 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.327
289
10 of 138
rush: success rate
0.544
289
8 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.017
289
51 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.531
289
15 of 138
pass: success rate
0.500
289
30 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.686
289
36 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.543
289
32 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.432
289
8 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.344
289
34 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.201
289
104 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.824
289
26 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.645
289
28 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.119
289
35 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.067
289
26 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.052
289
65 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.800
289
47 of 138
ULM defence
ULM defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.308
295
135 of 138
success rate
0.508
295
137 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.215
295
66 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.314
295
136 of 138
rush: success rate
0.522
295
138 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.077
295
115 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.339
295
118 of 138
pass: success rate
0.500
295
130 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.413
295
34 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.536
295
133 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.427
295
136 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.418
295
130 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.161
295
32 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
295
102 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.448
295
125 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.115
295
8 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.064
295
8 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.051
295
42 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.600
295
41 of 138
MSST defence
MSST defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.018
292
59 of 138
success rate
0.373
292
55 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.143
292
39 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.008
292
55 of 138
rush: success rate
0.358
292
39 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.720
292
17 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.067
292
50 of 138
pass: success rate
0.388
292
64 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.441
292
43 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.437
292
59 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.221
292
20 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.911
292
82 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.158
292
30 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.600
292
24 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.167
292
58 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.182
292
97 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.082
292
41 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.099
292
130 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.000
292
66 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs