Betting
Spread
ULM favouredMarket MSST −28.5Ours MSST −31.1
MSST favouredgap 2.6 toward MSST
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| ULM away | +28.5 | 13.0 | +1600 | 5.7% | — |
| MSST home | -28.5 | 41.5 | -4000 | 94.3% | — |
| Total | 54.5 | |
The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| ULM away | +31.0 | 11.7 | 2.6% | +2.5 |
| MSST home | -31.0 | 42.8 | 97.4% | -2.5 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| ULM away | +27.5 | 11.5 | 1.0% | -1.0 |
| MSST home | -27.5 | 39.1 | 99.0% | +1.0 |
| Total | 50.6 | | | -3.9 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | ULM | MSST |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | -5.4124th | +5.025th |
| Defence (cards) | -3.7138th | +1.239th |
| Card team rating | -9.1135th | +6.228th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | -29.0138th | +15.118th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -1.2136th | +0.622nd |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | -2.0137th | +1.121st |
| Card line | MSST -31.1 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 39% | 34% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Aidan Armenta ULM73 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.146
Completion65.2%
TD–INT3-0
Pass attempts, median game21
Pass yards, median game148
Rush yards, median game-3
Games this season3
Team throws per game30.5
KaMario Taylor MSST87 ▲4 overall · Sophomore
Points added per play0.516
Completion69.2%
TD–INT14-2
Pass attempts, median game30
Pass yards, median game303
Rush yards, median game46
Games this season4
Team throws per game32.2
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| ULM away | 1-3 | 25% | -11.5 | 3-1 | +10.3 |
| MSST home | 4-0 | 100% | +14.4 | 2-2 | +7.5 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Davis Wade Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
No news read for this game yet.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| ULM | D. Jameson RB | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Jameson is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against the South Alabama on Saturday. |
| MSST | A. Williams WR | out Leg | Thu, Oct 1 | Williams is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unlikely to play Saturday against the Alabama. |
| MSST | F. Bothwell RB | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Bothwell is dealing with an undisclosed injury , but he is likely to play against Alabama on Saturday. |
| MSST | J. Freeman OG | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Freeman is managing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Alabama on Saturday, October 3th. |
| MSST | T. Williams DL | out Leg | Sat, Sep 26 | Williams is sidelined due to Leg injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season. |
| MSST | B. Mitchell WR | out Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Mitchell is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return. |