Betting
Spread
BAY favouredMarket AUB −6.5Ours AUB −13.4
AUB favouredgap 6.9 toward AUB
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| BAY neutral | +6.5 | 26.0 | +220 | 30.0% | — |
| AUB neutral | -6.5 | 32.5 | -270 | 70.0% | — |
| Total | 58.5 | |
The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| BAY neutral | +13.5 | 22.5 | 18.7% | +7.0 |
| AUB neutral | -13.5 | 36.0 | 81.3% | -7.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| BAY neutral | +6.0 | 21.9 | 33.4% | -0.5 |
| AUB neutral | -6.0 | 28.1 | 66.6% | +0.5 |
| Total | 50.0 | | | -8.5 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | BAY | AUB |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +2.243rd | +7.514th |
| Defence (cards) | +0.260th | +2.024th |
| Card team rating | +2.447th | +9.513th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +8.143rd | +11.431st |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +0.347th | +0.528th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +0.548th | +0.829th |
| Card line | AUB -13.4 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 0 home field) |
| Returning production | 60% | 14% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
DJ Lagway BAY83 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.113
Completion49.5%
TD–INT4-2
Pass attempts, median game47
Pass yards, median game277
Rush yards, median game-4
Games this season2
Team throws per game39.5
Byrum Brown AUB89 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.221
Completion64.8%
TD–INT6-5
Pass attempts, median game32
Pass yards, median game241
Rush yards, median game61
Games this season4
Team throws per game32.5
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| BAY away | 3-1 | 75% | +1.8 | 1-3 | -12.0 |
| AUB home | 1-3 | 25% | -2.4 | 1-3 | -5.0 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Mercedes-Benz Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
No news read for this game yet.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| BAY | A. Jones WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Jones is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will suit up against Arizona St. on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| BAY | C. Redding S | out Knee | Sat, Sep 5 | Redding has been out of commission due to knee injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season. |
| BAY | T. Williams Jr. WR | out Collarbone | Fri, Aug 21 | Williams who is dealing with a collarbone injury, and he will miss an extended period. |
| AUB | H. Herring TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Herring is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will be available against Commodores on Saturday, September 26th. |
| AUB | E. Smith WR | out Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Smith is hobbled by an undisclosed injury, and the officials have yet to provide a return date. |
| AUB | N. Davenport RB | out Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Davenport is managing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no time table for his return. |