Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). USM wins about 63% of the time at a number like ours.
USA
Games
4
Plays per game
77.0
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-15.4 (121st, offence 88th, defence 136th)
Returning production
79% (pass 95%, rush 62%, receiving 80%)
USM
Games
4
Plays per game
71.5
Drives per game
12.5
SP+
-18.4 (128th, offence 115th, defence 132nd)
Returning production
90% (pass 97%, rush 102%, receiving 82%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
USA
USM
pass rate, all downs
42%112th
53%32nd
pass rate, standard downs
37%111th
46%38th
pass rate, 1st down
40%95th
42%79th
no-huddle share
92%18th
59%72nd
pass rate, passing downs
54%116th
70%35th
pass rate, red zone
29%115th
26%121st
seconds per play (own drives)
29.561st
25.1127th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
USA offence
USA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.174
308
63 of 138
success rate
0.419
308
91 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.302
308
38 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.177
308
47 of 138
rush: success rate
0.425
308
90 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.068
308
29 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.208
308
77 of 138
pass: success rate
0.421
308
85 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.639
308
50 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.448
308
111 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.354
308
45 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.182
308
62 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.121
308
16 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.792
308
44 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.296
308
48 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.146
308
77 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.088
308
72 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.058
308
80 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.300
308
93 of 138
USM offence
USM offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.063
286
103 of 138
success rate
0.430
286
83 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.125
286
117 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.190
286
40 of 138
rush: success rate
0.470
286
50 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.824
286
109 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.000
286
125 of 138
pass: success rate
0.408
286
93 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.440
286
103 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.493
286
68 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.272
286
105 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.582
286
13 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.090
286
2 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.842
286
18 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.091
286
59 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.157
286
90 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.070
286
32 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.087
286
134 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
75.000
286
9 of 138
USA defence
USA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.279
218
132 of 138
success rate
0.486
218
134 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.460
218
133 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.349
218
138 of 138
rush: success rate
0.505
218
134 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.380
218
137 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.210
218
89 of 138
pass: success rate
0.462
218
113 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.565
218
76 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.532
218
131 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.367
218
127 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.230
218
118 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.174
218
42 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.600
218
25 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.077
218
116 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.179
218
93 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.115
218
99 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.064
218
81 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.300
218
20 of 138
USM defence
USM defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.123
298
94 of 138
success rate
0.406
298
81 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.273
298
90 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.189
298
125 of 138
rush: success rate
0.453
298
109 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.039
298
104 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.209
298
88 of 138
pass: success rate
0.363
298
37 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.731
298
117 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.425
298
50 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.363
298
125 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.197
298
114 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.180
298
50 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.706
298
65 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.960
298
46 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.131
298
29 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.087
298
49 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.044
298
29 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.600
298
83 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs