Line has moved +0.5 since we first saw it (USA -14.5 to USA -14).
Betting
Spread
ULM favouredMarket USA −14Ours USA −0.9
USA favouredgap 13.1 toward ULM
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| ULM away | +14.0 | 21.8 | +455 | 17.3% | 17% |
| USA home | -14.0 | 35.8 | -625 | 82.7% | 84% |
| Total | 57.5 | |
USA -14.5 when first seen, now USA -14 · total 55.5 then, 57.5 now. Over -108 / under -112 · DraftKings, 2026-10-02 05:30 UTC.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| ULM away | +1.0 | 28.3 | 47.3% | -13.0 |
| USA home | -1.0 | 29.2 | 52.7% | +13.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| ULM away | +16.5 | 21.2 | 12.5% | +2.5 |
| USA home | -16.5 | 37.9 | 87.5% | -2.5 |
| Total | 59.1 | | | +1.6 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | ULM | USA |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | -5.4124th | -7.2135th |
| Defence (cards) | -3.7138th | -2.7133rd |
| Card team rating | -9.1135th | -9.9136th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | -29.0138th | -15.4121st |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -1.2136th | -0.5100th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | -2.0137th | -0.9112th |
| Card line | USA -0.9 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 39% | 79% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Aidan Armenta ULM73 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.146
Completion65.2%
TD–INT3-0
Pass attempts, median game21
Pass yards, median game148
Rush yards, median game-3
Games this season3
Team throws per game30.5
Jared Hollins USA68 overall · Sophomore
Points added per play0.117
Completion57.1%
TD–INT3-2
Pass attempts, median game20
Pass yards, median game192
Rush yards, median game18
Games this season3
Team throws per game30.5
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| ULM away | 1-3 | 25% | -11.5 | 3-1 | +10.3 |
| USA home | 2-2 | 50% | +2.9 | 3-1 | +10.5 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
| Team | Split | Streak (4+), and what happened next in 8,097 games |
|---|
| ULM | all | lost 11 straight — next game covered 49.5% of the time (2595 cases) |
| ULM | away | lost 7 straight — next game covered 50.2% of the time (7379 cases) |
| ULM | underdog | lost 10 straight — next game covered 49.5% of the time (2595 cases) |
| ULM | away underdog | lost 6 straight — next game covered 50.2% of the time (7379 cases) |
| ULM | day | lost 9 straight — next game covered 51.1% of the time (4270 cases) |
| ULM | division | lost 7 straight — next game covered 50.2% of the time (7379 cases) |
| ULM | away division | lost 7 straight — next game covered 50.2% of the time (7379 cases) |
| USA | all | gone over 5 straight — next game went over 46.2% of the time (2484 cases) |
| USA | day | gone over 5 straight — next game went over 46.2% of the time (2484 cases) |
| USA | home favourite | failed to cover 5 straight — next game covered 53.4% of the time (2811 cases) |
| USA | favourite of 7+ | failed to cover 4 straight — next game covered 52.7% of the time (6098 cases) |
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Hancock Whitney Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
Nothing in the news for either side. College publishes no official injury report, so absence of news is not a clean bill of health.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| ULM | D. Jameson RB | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Jameson is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against the South Alabama on Saturday. |
| USA | K. Marion WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Marion has been out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season. |
| USA | D. White WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | White is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is not projected to face against Louisiana-Monroe on Saturday. |
| USA | B. Barnes WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Barnes has been out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season. |
| USA | M. Lynch TE | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Lynch has been out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season. |