Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). MTSU wins about 57% of the time at a number like ours.
NMSU
Games
4
Plays per game
68.0
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-17.8 (126th, offence 122nd, defence 126th)
Returning production
24% (pass 40%, rush 81%, receiving 30%)
MTSU
Games
4
Plays per game
61.8
Drives per game
9.5
SP+
-16.0 (122nd, offence 123rd, defence 118th)
Returning production
33% (pass 39%, rush 60%, receiving 26%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
NMSU
MTSU
pass rate, all downs
56%18th
56%17th
pass rate, standard downs
49%14th
49%18th
pass rate, 1st down
48%34th
52%17th
no-huddle share
82%42nd
98%4th
pass rate, passing downs
71%31st
74%23rd
pass rate, red zone
50%18th
67%1st
seconds per play (own drives)
26.2117th
30.048th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
NMSU offence
NMSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.121
272
83 of 138
success rate
0.438
272
73 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.397
272
17 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.048
272
94 of 138
rush: success rate
0.454
272
66 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.990
272
59 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.281
272
62 of 138
pass: success rate
0.441
272
69 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.780
272
21 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.473
272
91 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.360
272
40 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.045
272
82 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.168
272
69 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.684
272
100 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.762
272
77 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.176
272
117 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.092
272
81 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.085
272
131 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
75.600
272
3 of 138
MTSU offence
MTSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.198
247
61 of 138
success rate
0.425
247
86 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.171
247
98 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.165
247
50 of 138
rush: success rate
0.448
247
70 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.880
247
89 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.239
247
72 of 138
pass: success rate
0.415
247
88 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.433
247
104 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.494
247
65 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.278
247
99 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.497
247
21 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.133
247
31 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.733
247
79 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.182
247
56 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.113
247
27 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.053
247
15 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.061
247
89 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.700
247
35 of 138
NMSU defence
NMSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.158
265
108 of 138
success rate
0.423
265
94 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.230
265
71 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.150
265
116 of 138
rush: success rate
0.425
265
87 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.014
265
95 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.199
265
86 of 138
pass: success rate
0.421
265
91 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.469
265
51 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.477
265
90 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.315
265
100 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.156
265
109 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.187
265
56 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.889
265
133 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.346
265
124 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.121
265
14 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.079
265
35 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.042
265
22 of 138
opponent average starting field position
65.600
265
2 of 138
MTSU defence
MTSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.101
239
87 of 138
success rate
0.452
239
119 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.120
239
30 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.050
239
78 of 138
rush: success rate
0.463
239
118 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.008
239
94 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.186
239
83 of 138
pass: success rate
0.454
239
109 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.300
239
13 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.511
239
121 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.279
239
67 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.093
239
108 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.176
239
43 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.724
239
73 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.667
239
27 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.117
239
10 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.071
239
19 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.046
239
32 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.900
239
105 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs