Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). MTSU wins about 52% of the time at a number like ours.
KENN
Games
4
Plays per game
68.0
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-11.7 (113th, offence 108th, defence 101st)
Returning production
6% (pass 0%, rush -4%, receiving 13%)
MTSU
Games
4
Plays per game
61.8
Drives per game
9.5
SP+
-16.0 (122nd, offence 123rd, defence 118th)
Returning production
33% (pass 39%, rush 60%, receiving 26%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
KENN
MTSU
pass rate, all downs
50%51st
56%17th
pass rate, standard downs
47%28th
49%18th
pass rate, 1st down
53%12th
52%17th
no-huddle share
85%34th
98%4th
pass rate, passing downs
58%99th
74%23rd
pass rate, red zone
32%97th
67%1st
seconds per play (own drives)
26.2118th
30.048th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
KENN offence
KENN offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.097
272
95 of 138
success rate
0.460
272
53 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.051
272
133 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.157
272
53 of 138
rush: success rate
0.500
272
25 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.006
272
54 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.103
272
108 of 138
pass: success rate
0.438
272
71 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.128
272
138 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.534
272
36 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.289
272
93 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.314
272
38 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.197
272
99 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.818
272
28 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.167
272
57 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.140
272
68 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.085
272
62 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.055
272
73 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.200
272
29 of 138
MTSU offence
MTSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.198
247
61 of 138
success rate
0.425
247
86 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.171
247
98 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.165
247
50 of 138
rush: success rate
0.448
247
70 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.880
247
89 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.239
247
72 of 138
pass: success rate
0.415
247
88 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.433
247
104 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.494
247
65 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.278
247
99 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.497
247
21 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.133
247
31 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.733
247
79 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.182
247
56 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.113
247
27 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.053
247
15 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.061
247
89 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.700
247
35 of 138
KENN defence
KENN defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.151
251
102 of 138
success rate
0.426
251
95 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.089
251
22 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.078
251
87 of 138
rush: success rate
0.404
251
70 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.901
251
66 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.264
251
100 of 138
pass: success rate
0.462
251
112 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.284
251
10 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.486
251
98 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.295
251
85 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.160
251
111 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.191
251
63 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.857
251
125 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.826
251
102 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.108
251
3 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.076
251
32 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.032
251
6 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.000
251
49 of 138
MTSU defence
MTSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.101
239
87 of 138
success rate
0.452
239
119 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.120
239
30 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.050
239
78 of 138
rush: success rate
0.463
239
118 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.008
239
94 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.186
239
83 of 138
pass: success rate
0.454
239
109 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.300
239
13 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.511
239
121 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.279
239
67 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.093
239
108 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.176
239
43 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.724
239
73 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.667
239
27 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.117
239
10 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.071
239
19 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.046
239
32 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.900
239
105 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs