Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). MOST wins about 67% of the time at a number like ours.
MOST
Games
4
Plays per game
61.8
Drives per game
10.5
SP+
-17.6 (125th, offence 118th, defence 128th)
Returning production
31% (pass 5%, rush -3%, receiving 47%)
WKU
Games
4
Plays per game
71.2
Drives per game
12.8
SP+
-16.4 (123rd, offence 107th, defence 131st)
Returning production
84% (pass 95%, rush 55%, receiving 85%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
MOST
WKU
pass rate, all downs
47%83rd
52%39th
pass rate, standard downs
37%108th
44%49th
pass rate, 1st down
41%89th
42%80th
no-huddle share
80%45th
75%54th
pass rate, passing downs
68%48th
66%54th
pass rate, red zone
46%34th
50%22nd
seconds per play (own drives)
25.8125th
26.0123rd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
MOST offence
MOST offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.101
247
94 of 138
success rate
0.401
247
106 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.229
247
67 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.023
247
108 of 138
rush: success rate
0.443
247
78 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.857
247
98 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.229
247
75 of 138
pass: success rate
0.363
247
120 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.756
247
24 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.494
247
66 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.195
247
136 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.994
247
87 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.160
247
59 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.714
247
91 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.368
247
41 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.166
247
101 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.113
247
118 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.053
247
69 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.600
247
24 of 138
WKU offence
WKU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.006
285
121 of 138
success rate
0.375
285
121 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.261
285
56 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.105
285
133 of 138
rush: success rate
0.406
285
100 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.720
285
128 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.125
285
101 of 138
pass: success rate
0.359
285
124 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.856
285
13 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.433
285
122 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.276
285
100 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.695
285
120 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.239
285
130 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.714
285
92 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.667
285
83 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.154
285
85 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.119
285
125 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.035
285
21 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.500
285
70 of 138
MOST defence
MOST defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.227
296
128 of 138
success rate
0.517
296
138 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.023
296
7 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.107
296
97 of 138
rush: success rate
0.509
296
135 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.671
296
11 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.382
296
125 of 138
pass: success rate
0.508
296
132 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.487
296
54 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.581
296
138 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.360
296
124 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.332
296
125 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.160
296
31 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.870
296
127 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.969
296
110 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.149
296
48 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.088
296
51 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.061
296
66 of 138
opponent average starting field position
67.400
296
10 of 138
WKU defence
WKU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.303
258
134 of 138
success rate
0.446
258
114 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.460
258
134 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.341
258
137 of 138
rush: success rate
0.464
258
121 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.232
258
134 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.242
258
95 of 138
pass: success rate
0.429
258
100 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.727
258
116 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.495
258
108 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.329
258
112 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.504
258
136 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.145
258
20 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.850
258
123 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.962
258
131 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.128
258
23 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.074
258
27 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.054
258
50 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.700
258
87 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs