Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). MRSH wins about 54% of the time at a number like ours.
MRSH
Games
4
Plays per game
67.0
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
-12.5 (115th, offence 82nd, defence 134th)
Returning production
99% (pass 100%, rush 210%, receiving 91%)
MOST
Games
4
Plays per game
61.8
Drives per game
10.5
SP+
-17.6 (125th, offence 118th, defence 128th)
Returning production
31% (pass 5%, rush -3%, receiving 47%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
MRSH
MOST
pass rate, all downs
48%69th
47%83rd
pass rate, standard downs
38%100th
37%108th
pass rate, 1st down
35%113th
41%89th
no-huddle share
85%32nd
80%45th
pass rate, passing downs
69%40th
68%48th
pass rate, red zone
43%45th
46%34th
seconds per play (own drives)
29.560th
25.8125th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
MRSH offence
MRSH offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.088
268
99 of 138
success rate
0.418
268
93 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.212
268
76 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.086
268
130 of 138
rush: success rate
0.417
268
94 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.851
268
101 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.365
268
43 of 138
pass: success rate
0.425
268
81 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.647
268
48 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.500
268
61 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.244
268
117 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.002
268
86 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.216
268
119 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.684
268
99 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.552
268
128 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.168
268
105 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.119
268
124 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.049
268
60 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.300
268
27 of 138
MOST offence
MOST offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.101
247
94 of 138
success rate
0.401
247
106 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.229
247
67 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.023
247
108 of 138
rush: success rate
0.443
247
78 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.857
247
98 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.229
247
75 of 138
pass: success rate
0.363
247
120 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.756
247
24 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.494
247
66 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.195
247
136 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.994
247
87 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.160
247
59 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.714
247
91 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.368
247
41 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.166
247
101 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.113
247
118 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.053
247
69 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.600
247
24 of 138
MRSH defence
MRSH defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.332
269
137 of 138
success rate
0.472
269
130 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.322
269
105 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.112
269
99 of 138
rush: success rate
0.472
269
123 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.802
269
29 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.533
269
138 of 138
pass: success rate
0.471
269
120 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.819
269
123 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.544
269
135 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.289
269
81 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.276
269
122 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.152
269
27 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.812
269
110 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.174
269
118 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.119
269
12 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.067
269
10 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.052
269
43 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.700
269
62 of 138
MOST defence
MOST defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.227
296
128 of 138
success rate
0.517
296
138 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.023
296
7 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.107
296
97 of 138
rush: success rate
0.509
296
135 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.671
296
11 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.382
296
125 of 138
pass: success rate
0.508
296
132 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.487
296
54 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.581
296
138 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.360
296
124 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.332
296
125 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.160
296
31 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.870
296
127 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.969
296
110 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.149
296
48 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.088
296
51 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.061
296
66 of 138
opponent average starting field position
67.400
296
10 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs