Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). UL wins about 59% of the time at a number like ours.
UL
Games
4
Plays per game
68.2
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-3.0 (80th, offence 83rd, defence 82nd)
Returning production
92% (pass 101%, rush 82%, receiving 92%)
USM
Games
4
Plays per game
71.5
Drives per game
12.5
SP+
-18.4 (128th, offence 115th, defence 132nd)
Returning production
90% (pass 97%, rush 102%, receiving 82%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
UL
USM
pass rate, all downs
39%123rd
53%32nd
pass rate, standard downs
33%120th
46%38th
pass rate, 1st down
33%119th
42%79th
no-huddle share
59%73rd
59%72nd
pass rate, passing downs
53%120th
70%35th
pass rate, red zone
22%126th
26%121st
seconds per play (own drives)
31.417th
25.1127th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
UL offence
UL offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.132
273
78 of 138
success rate
0.425
273
85 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.175
273
95 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.154
273
55 of 138
rush: success rate
0.421
273
92 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.123
273
19 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.256
273
68 of 138
pass: success rate
0.451
273
58 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.257
273
135 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.475
273
88 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.326
273
62 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.059
273
78 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.183
273
89 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
273
66 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.793
273
75 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.150
273
80 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.117
273
122 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.033
273
17 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.900
273
125 of 138
USM offence
USM offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.063
286
103 of 138
success rate
0.430
286
83 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.125
286
117 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.190
286
40 of 138
rush: success rate
0.470
286
50 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.824
286
109 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.000
286
125 of 138
pass: success rate
0.408
286
93 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.440
286
103 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.493
286
68 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.272
286
105 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.582
286
13 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.090
286
2 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.842
286
18 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.091
286
59 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.157
286
90 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.070
286
32 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.087
286
134 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
75.000
286
9 of 138
UL defence
UL defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.166
242
3 of 138
success rate
0.397
242
73 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
0.984
242
5 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.305
242
2 of 138
rush: success rate
0.418
242
82 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.504
242
7 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.127
242
68 of 138
pass: success rate
0.408
242
76 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.429
242
35 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.449
242
71 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.280
242
69 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.651
242
53 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.245
242
118 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.462
242
6 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.455
242
126 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.182
242
96 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.116
242
102 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.066
242
86 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.200
242
121 of 138
USM defence
USM defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.123
298
94 of 138
success rate
0.406
298
81 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.273
298
90 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.189
298
125 of 138
rush: success rate
0.453
298
109 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.039
298
104 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.209
298
88 of 138
pass: success rate
0.363
298
37 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.731
298
117 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.425
298
50 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.363
298
125 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.197
298
114 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.180
298
50 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.706
298
65 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.960
298
46 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.131
298
29 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.087
298
49 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.044
298
29 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.600
298
83 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs