Betting
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| UL away | -4.0 | — | 61.0% | — |
| USM home | +4.0 | — | 39.0% | — |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
Nothing to show for this game.
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | UL | USM |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | -3.8101st | -6.1128th |
| Defence (cards) | -1.6110th | -2.7134th |
| Card team rating | -5.4106th | -8.8132nd |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | -3.080th | -18.4128th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -0.496th | -0.8123rd |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | -0.488th | -1.3126th |
| Card line | USM +3.9 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 92% | 90% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Lunch Winfield UL77 ▲3 overall · Junior
Points added per play—
Completion—
TD–INT—
Pass attempts, median game—
Pass yards, median game—
Rush yards, median game—
Games this season0
Team throws per game24.5
Landry Lyddy USM72 overall · Senior
Points added per play—
Completion—
TD–INT—
Pass attempts, median game—
Pass yards, median game—
Rush yards, median game—
Games this season0
Team throws per game35.2
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| UL away | 3-0-1 | 100% | +9.9 | 1-3 | -3.0 |
| USM home | 2-2 | 50% | +3.3 | 2-2 | +0.3 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (M. M. Roberts Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
No news read for this game yet.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| UL | J. Birdlow TE | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Birdlow is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he is not projected to face against Arkansas State on Saturday. |
| UL | S. Sampson Jr. WR | questionable Knee | Sun, Sep 27 | Sampson Jr. is nursing with a knee injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be available against Arkansas State on Saturday, October 3th. |
| USM | R. Briggs RB | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Briggs is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against Troy on Tuesday, October 6th. |
| USM | E. Hampton QB | out Hand | Fri, Sep 25 | Hampton is nursing with a hand injury, and a timetable for return has yet to be established. |
| USM | J. Himes WR | out Foot | Fri, Sep 25 | Himes is out of commission due to a foot injury, and he will miss an extended period. |
| USM | G. Page WR | out Elbow | Tue, Sep 22 | Page is sidelined due to a dislocated elbow, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date. |