Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). JMU wins about 80% of the time at a number like ours.
JMU
Games
4
Plays per game
67.2
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
9.9 (36th, offence 48th, defence 27th)
Returning production
8% (pass 9%, rush 7%, receiving 9%)
ODU
Games
4
Plays per game
59.8
Drives per game
13.0
SP+
-7.9 (101st, offence 117th, defence 73rd)
Returning production
9% (pass -2%, rush 10%, receiving 18%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
JMU
ODU
pass rate, all downs
46%89th
47%75th
pass rate, standard downs
41%76th
39%92nd
pass rate, 1st down
46%46th
42%72nd
no-huddle share
90%22nd
86%30th
pass rate, passing downs
59%95th
60%88th
pass rate, red zone
33%92nd
30%110th
seconds per play (own drives)
27.790th
28.973rd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
JMU offence
JMU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.293
269
26 of 138
success rate
0.476
269
42 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.223
269
70 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.245
269
26 of 138
rush: success rate
0.497
269
27 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.005
269
55 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.368
269
40 of 138
pass: success rate
0.458
269
57 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.527
269
75 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.525
269
42 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.338
269
54 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.231
269
54 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.154
269
54 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.773
269
54 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.562
269
36 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.104
269
17 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.067
269
24 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.037
269
22 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.900
269
124 of 138
ODU offence
ODU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.100
239
135 of 138
success rate
0.310
239
138 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.483
239
5 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.076
239
126 of 138
rush: success rate
0.331
239
136 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.298
239
4 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.137
239
136 of 138
pass: success rate
0.290
239
136 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.677
239
37 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.299
239
138 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.326
239
63 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
1.613
239
138 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.315
239
138 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.300
239
137 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.913
239
124 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.243
239
138 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.205
239
138 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.038
239
25 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.100
239
61 of 138
JMU defence
JMU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.197
287
1 of 138
success rate
0.275
287
1 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.380
287
120 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.142
287
19 of 138
rush: success rate
0.261
287
2 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.061
287
108 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.130
287
9 of 138
pass: success rate
0.281
287
3 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.687
287
108 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.311
287
1 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.230
287
30 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.369
287
22 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.196
287
73 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.818
287
112 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.478
287
18 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.178
287
89 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.118
287
106 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.059
287
63 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.600
287
82 of 138
ODU defence
ODU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.017
298
44 of 138
success rate
0.339
298
21 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.242
298
79 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.106
298
25 of 138
rush: success rate
0.318
298
18 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.963
298
85 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.102
298
61 of 138
pass: success rate
0.361
298
33 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.578
298
81 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.368
298
13 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.286
298
78 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.389
298
24 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.223
298
104 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.619
298
30 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.333
298
66 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.164
298
76 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.128
298
116 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.037
298
11 of 138
opponent average starting field position
66.000
298
4 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs