Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). LIB wins about 64% of the time at a number like ours.
LIB
Games
4
Plays per game
66.5
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
2.5 (62nd, offence 63rd, defence 54th)
Returning production
38% (pass 75%, rush 45%, receiving 21%)
CCU
Games
4
Plays per game
65.5
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-11.4 (112th, offence 96th, defence 119th)
Returning production
15% (pass 12%, rush 16%, receiving 17%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
LIB
CCU
pass rate, all downs
39%125th
53%30th
pass rate, standard downs
30%130th
42%64th
pass rate, 1st down
30%128th
40%93rd
no-huddle share
77%50th
71%60th
pass rate, passing downs
62%76th
73%28th
pass rate, red zone
38%72nd
53%13th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.827th
26.8106th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
LIB offence
LIB offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.124
266
82 of 138
success rate
0.462
266
50 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.131
266
115 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.001
266
113 of 138
rush: success rate
0.475
266
42 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.689
266
133 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.381
266
36 of 138
pass: success rate
0.449
266
62 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.921
266
8 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.487
266
75 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.400
266
17 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.324
266
36 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.113
266
10 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
266
61 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.643
266
84 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.147
266
78 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.094
266
84 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.053
266
68 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.200
266
118 of 138
CCU offence
CCU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.157
262
69 of 138
success rate
0.412
262
100 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.429
262
9 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.102
262
77 of 138
rush: success rate
0.444
262
76 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.878
262
91 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.240
262
70 of 138
pass: success rate
0.383
262
109 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.998
262
4 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.440
262
118 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.365
262
35 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.414
262
27 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.177
262
84 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.692
262
95 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.583
262
90 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.195
262
130 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.126
262
128 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.069
262
108 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.100
262
59 of 138
LIB defence
LIB defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.039
245
71 of 138
success rate
0.355
245
37 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.386
245
123 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.147
245
114 of 138
rush: success rate
0.398
245
66 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.084
245
117 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.039
245
41 of 138
pass: success rate
0.322
245
16 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.804
245
122 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.396
245
25 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.286
245
77 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.019
245
97 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.211
245
89 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.727
245
76 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.857
245
39 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.188
245
110 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.110
245
90 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.078
245
110 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.900
245
63 of 138
CCU defence
CCU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.095
264
83 of 138
success rate
0.451
264
117 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
0.939
264
2 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.005
264
57 of 138
rush: success rate
0.444
264
105 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.554
264
8 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.446
264
129 of 138
pass: success rate
0.489
264
126 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.589
264
84 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.505
264
115 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.274
264
60 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.182
264
112 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.123
264
8 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.810
264
109 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.160
264
57 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.148
264
46 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.098
264
67 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.049
264
37 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.000
264
47 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs