Betting
Spread
LIB favouredMarket LIB −2.5Ours LIB −6.2
CCU favouredgap 3.7 toward LIB
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| LIB away | -2.5 | 26.5 | -142 | 56.3% | 56% |
| CCU home | +2.5 | 24.0 | +120 | 43.7% | 45% |
| Total | 50.5 | |
LIB -2.5 when first seen, now LIB -2.5 · total 52.5 then, 50.5 now. The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| LIB away | -6.0 | 28.3 | 65.6% | -3.5 |
| CCU home | +6.0 | 22.2 | 34.4% | +3.5 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| LIB away | -4.5 | 29.6 | 61.7% | -2.0 |
| CCU home | +4.5 | 25.3 | 38.3% | +2.0 |
| Total | 54.9 | | | +4.4 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | LIB | CCU |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | -0.366th | -5.0115th |
| Defence (cards) | -2.3128th | -2.3127th |
| Card team rating | -2.682nd | -7.2121st |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +2.562nd | -11.4112th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -0.276th | -0.7113th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | -0.069th | -0.9113th |
| Card line | CCU +6.2 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 38% | 15% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Deshawn Purdie LIB77 ▲4 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.259
Completion58.8%
TD–INT7-0
Pass attempts, median game19
Pass yards, median game214
Rush yards, median game8
Games this season4
Team throws per game22.5
Deuce Bailey CCU74 ▲2 overall · Freshman
Points added per play0.245
Completion54.1%
TD–INT10-2
Pass attempts, median game30
Pass yards, median game232
Rush yards, median game26
Games this season4
Team throws per game31.2
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| LIB away | 2-2 | 50% | +1.9 | 2-2 | -2.3 |
| CCU home | 2-2 | 50% | -0.6 | 2-2 | -5.5 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
| Venue | Brooks Stadium (SC) · turf · 45 ft |
| Forecast at kickoff | 66°F, wind 13 mph, rain 0.01 in |
| Rest | LIB 5 days · CCU 5 days |
| Travel | LIB 246 miles, body clock 7:30pm at kickoff, -850 ft elevation |
Who is out (reported)
Nothing in the news for either side. College publishes no official injury report, so absence of news is not a clean bill of health.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| LIB | J. Marshall RB | questionable Leg | Fri, Sep 25 | Marshall is hampered by leg injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will face the Delaware on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| LIB | B. Burklow TE | questionable Undisclosed | Fri, Sep 25 | Burklow is hampered with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will play against the Delaware on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| LIB | C. Wood RB | questionable Undisclosed | Fri, Sep 25 | Wood is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will face the Delaware on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| CCU | K. Johnson WR | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Johnson is bothred by an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play Saturday versus the Southern Eagles. |
| CCU | C. Hinton WR | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Hinton is bothred by an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play Saturday versus the Southern Eagles. |