Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ARST wins about 72% of the time at a number like ours.
ULM
Games
4
Plays per game
67.8
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
-29.0 (138th, offence 131st, defence 138th)
Returning production
39% (pass 78%, rush 16%, receiving 26%)
ARST
Games
4
Plays per game
58.8
Drives per game
10.0
SP+
-9.5 (107th, offence 93rd, defence 110th)
Returning production
30% (pass 7%, rush -246%, receiving 54%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
ULM
ARST
pass rate, all downs
50%56th
47%78th
pass rate, standard downs
40%85th
40%86th
no-huddle share
95%14th
33%99th
pass rate, 1st down
38%102nd
43%69th
pass rate, passing downs
75%16th
67%52nd
pass rate, red zone
44%43rd
32%102nd
seconds per play (own drives)
27.985th
33.54th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
ULM offence
ULM offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.052
271
130 of 138
success rate
0.402
271
103 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.119
271
119 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.070
271
88 of 138
rush: success rate
0.432
271
86 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.879
271
90 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.082
271
134 of 138
pass: success rate
0.386
271
106 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.406
271
111 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.455
271
105 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.275
271
102 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.968
271
91 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.152
271
52 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.571
271
125 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.478
271
131 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.170
271
110 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.100
271
97 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.070
271
112 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.900
271
33 of 138
ARST offence
ARST offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.152
235
72 of 138
success rate
0.485
235
34 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.147
235
109 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.237
235
29 of 138
rush: success rate
0.504
235
22 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.962
235
72 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.124
235
102 of 138
pass: success rate
0.472
235
48 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.402
235
113 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.555
235
23 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.290
235
90 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.371
235
30 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.146
235
42 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.739
235
74 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.435
235
96 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.140
235
67 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.072
235
36 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.068
235
106 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.700
235
85 of 138
ULM defence
ULM defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.308
295
135 of 138
success rate
0.508
295
137 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.215
295
66 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.314
295
136 of 138
rush: success rate
0.522
295
138 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.077
295
115 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.339
295
118 of 138
pass: success rate
0.500
295
130 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.413
295
34 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.536
295
133 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.427
295
136 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.418
295
130 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.161
295
32 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
295
102 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.448
295
125 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.115
295
8 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.064
295
8 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.051
295
42 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.600
295
41 of 138
ARST defence
ARST defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.161
256
111 of 138
success rate
0.453
256
120 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.244
256
80 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.025
256
68 of 138
rush: success rate
0.463
256
116 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.890
256
60 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.462
256
133 of 138
pass: success rate
0.455
256
110 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.804
256
121 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.500
256
112 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.329
256
110 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.389
256
126 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.136
256
16 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
256
89 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.476
256
76 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.125
256
16 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.070
256
16 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.055
256
51 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.700
256
103 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs