Arkansas State · away
at
—
Saturday 2026-10-17 · time TBA · M. M. Roberts Stadium
Southern Miss · home
GameNewsMismatchesTeamPersonnelBetting

The trenches

Pass rushsack ratestopped behind the linefacessacks allowedpairing
USM pass rush6.4% 9445th7.4% 23098thfaces ARST6.7% 9095th6.5% ~2.2 sacks
ARST pass rush2.9% 70110th7.2% 193101stfaces USM6.7% 12096th4.8% ~1.6 sacks

sacks from CFBD play-by-play; college has no charted pressure, and these rates are not opponent-adjusted Measured on 7,926 team-games 2022–25: a college line's sacks-allowed rate carries +0.27 into its next game and a defence's sack rate only +0.10 — the line is most of this. The pairing predicts the game's sack rate +0.27, yards per dropback −0.16 and points added per play −0.15. Heaviest quarter of pairings against lightest: 7.8% vs 4.2% sack rate, 6.1 vs 7.2 yards per dropback.

ARST with the ball

ARST offence vs USM defenceARST offenceUSM defencerank gap
points added per play0.15272nd0.12394th+22
success rate0.48534th0.40681st+47
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)1.147109th1.27390th-19
rush: points added per play0.23729th0.189125th+96
rush: success rate0.50422nd0.453109th+87
rush: explosiveness0.96272nd1.039104th+32
pass: points added per play0.124102nd0.20988th-14
pass: success rate0.47248th0.36337th-11
pass: explosiveness1.402113th1.731117th+4
standard downs: success rate0.55523rd0.42550th+27
passing downs: success rate0.29090th0.363125th+35
line yards per rush (the O-line)3.37130th3.197114th+84
rushes stopped at or behind the line0.14642nd0.18050th+8
short-yardage conversion rate0.73974th0.70665th-9
points per trip inside the 403.43596th2.96046th-50
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)0.14067th0.13129th-38
havoc allowed by the front seven0.07236th0.08749th+13
havoc allowed by the secondary0.068106th0.04429th-77
average starting field position (yards from own goal)69.70085th——

USM with the ball

USM offence vs ARST defenceUSM offenceARST defencerank gap
points added per play0.063103rd0.161111th+8
success rate0.43083rd0.453120th+37
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)1.125117th1.24480th-37
rush: points added per play0.19040th0.02568th+28
rush: success rate0.47050th0.463116th+66
rush: explosiveness0.824109th0.89060th-49
pass: points added per play0.000125th0.462133rd+8
pass: success rate0.40893rd0.455110th+17
pass: explosiveness1.440103rd1.804121st+18
standard downs: success rate0.49368th0.500112th+44
passing downs: success rate0.272105th0.329110th+5
line yards per rush (the O-line)3.58213th3.389126th+113
rushes stopped at or behind the line0.0902nd0.13616th+14
short-yardage conversion rate0.84218th0.76289th+71
points per trip inside the 404.09159th3.47676th+17
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)0.15790th0.12516th-74
havoc allowed by the front seven0.07032nd0.07016th-16
havoc allowed by the secondary0.087134th0.05551st-83
average starting field position (yards from own goal)75.0009th——

Rank gap = the defence's FBS rank minus the offence's on the same measure: +60 means the offence ranks 60 places better than the defence it faces. Unit against unit only — college has no player charting to name a matchup by.