Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ARST wins about 76% of the time at a number like ours.
USA
Games
4
Plays per game
77.0
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-15.4 (121st, offence 88th, defence 136th)
Returning production
79% (pass 95%, rush 62%, receiving 80%)
ARST
Games
4
Plays per game
58.8
Drives per game
10.0
SP+
-9.5 (107th, offence 93rd, defence 110th)
Returning production
30% (pass 7%, rush -246%, receiving 54%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
USA
ARST
pass rate, all downs
42%112th
47%78th
pass rate, standard downs
37%111th
40%86th
pass rate, 1st down
40%95th
43%69th
no-huddle share
92%18th
33%99th
pass rate, passing downs
54%116th
67%52nd
pass rate, red zone
29%115th
32%102nd
seconds per play (own drives)
29.561st
33.54th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
USA offence
USA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.174
308
63 of 138
success rate
0.419
308
91 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.302
308
38 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.177
308
47 of 138
rush: success rate
0.425
308
90 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.068
308
29 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.208
308
77 of 138
pass: success rate
0.421
308
85 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.639
308
50 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.448
308
111 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.354
308
45 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.182
308
62 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.121
308
16 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.792
308
44 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.296
308
48 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.146
308
77 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.088
308
72 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.058
308
80 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.300
308
93 of 138
ARST offence
ARST offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.152
235
72 of 138
success rate
0.485
235
34 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.147
235
109 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.237
235
29 of 138
rush: success rate
0.504
235
22 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.962
235
72 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.124
235
102 of 138
pass: success rate
0.472
235
48 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.402
235
113 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.555
235
23 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.290
235
90 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.371
235
30 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.146
235
42 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.739
235
74 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.435
235
96 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.140
235
67 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.072
235
36 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.068
235
106 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.700
235
85 of 138
USA defence
USA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.279
218
132 of 138
success rate
0.486
218
134 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.460
218
133 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.349
218
138 of 138
rush: success rate
0.505
218
134 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.380
218
137 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.210
218
89 of 138
pass: success rate
0.462
218
113 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.565
218
76 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.532
218
131 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.367
218
127 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.230
218
118 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.174
218
42 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.600
218
25 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.077
218
116 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.179
218
93 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.115
218
99 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.064
218
81 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.300
218
20 of 138
ARST defence
ARST defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.161
256
111 of 138
success rate
0.453
256
120 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.244
256
80 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.025
256
68 of 138
rush: success rate
0.463
256
116 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.890
256
60 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.462
256
133 of 138
pass: success rate
0.455
256
110 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.804
256
121 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.500
256
112 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.329
256
110 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.389
256
126 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.136
256
16 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
256
89 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.476
256
76 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.125
256
16 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.070
256
16 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.055
256
51 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.700
256
103 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs