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Thursday 2026-10-08 19:30 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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The trenches

Pass rushsack ratestopped behind the linefacessacks allowedpairing
ARST pass rush2.9% 70110th7.2% 193101stfaces USA4.1% 9851st3.5% ~1.1 sacks
USA pass rush5.9% 8549th8.0% 17686thfaces ARST6.7% 9095th6.3% ~2.1 sacks

sacks from CFBD play-by-play; college has no charted pressure, and these rates are not opponent-adjusted Measured on 7,926 team-games 2022–25: a college line's sacks-allowed rate carries +0.27 into its next game and a defence's sack rate only +0.10 — the line is most of this. The pairing predicts the game's sack rate +0.27, yards per dropback −0.16 and points added per play −0.15. Heaviest quarter of pairings against lightest: 7.8% vs 4.2% sack rate, 6.1 vs 7.2 yards per dropback.

USA with the ball

USA offence vs ARST defenceUSA offenceARST defencerank gap
points added per play0.17463rd0.161111th+48
success rate0.41991st0.453120th+29
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)1.30238th1.24480th+42
rush: points added per play0.17747th0.02568th+21
rush: success rate0.42590th0.463116th+26
rush: explosiveness1.06829th0.89060th+31
pass: points added per play0.20877th0.462133rd+56
pass: success rate0.42185th0.455110th+25
pass: explosiveness1.63950th1.804121st+71
standard downs: success rate0.448111th0.500112th+1
passing downs: success rate0.35445th0.329110th+65
line yards per rush (the O-line)3.18262nd3.389126th+64
rushes stopped at or behind the line0.12116th0.13616th0
short-yardage conversion rate0.79244th0.76289th+45
points per trip inside the 404.29648th3.47676th+28
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)0.14677th0.12516th-61
havoc allowed by the front seven0.08872nd0.07016th-56
havoc allowed by the secondary0.05880th0.05551st-29
average starting field position (yards from own goal)69.30093rd——

ARST with the ball

ARST offence vs USA defenceARST offenceUSA defencerank gap
points added per play0.15272nd0.279132nd+60
success rate0.48534th0.486134th+100
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)1.147109th1.460133rd+24
rush: points added per play0.23729th0.349138th+109
rush: success rate0.50422nd0.505134th+112
rush: explosiveness0.96272nd1.380137th+65
pass: points added per play0.124102nd0.21089th-13
pass: success rate0.47248th0.462113th+65
pass: explosiveness1.402113th1.56576th-37
standard downs: success rate0.55523rd0.532131st+108
passing downs: success rate0.29090th0.367127th+37
line yards per rush (the O-line)3.37130th3.230118th+88
rushes stopped at or behind the line0.14642nd0.17442nd0
short-yardage conversion rate0.73974th0.60025th-49
points per trip inside the 403.43596th4.077116th+20
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)0.14067th0.17993rd+26
havoc allowed by the front seven0.07236th0.11599th+63
havoc allowed by the secondary0.068106th0.06481st-25
average starting field position (yards from own goal)69.70085th——

Rank gap = the defence's FBS rank minus the offence's on the same measure: +60 means the offence ranks 60 places better than the defence it faces. Unit against unit only — college has no player charting to name a matchup by.