Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). APP wins about 73% of the time at a number like ours.
APP
Games
4
Plays per game
72.0
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-4.4 (89th, offence 80th, defence 95th)
Returning production
38% (pass -31%, rush 85%, receiving 57%)
USA
Games
4
Plays per game
77.0
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-15.4 (121st, offence 88th, defence 136th)
Returning production
79% (pass 95%, rush 62%, receiving 80%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
APP
USA
pass rate, all downs
52%38th
42%112th
pass rate, standard downs
47%31st
37%111th
pass rate, 1st down
47%41st
40%95th
no-huddle share
56%78th
92%18th
pass rate, passing downs
64%66th
54%116th
pass rate, red zone
30%111th
29%115th
seconds per play (own drives)
27.0102nd
29.561st
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
APP offence
APP offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.238
288
44 of 138
success rate
0.455
288
55 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.312
288
34 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.048
288
93 of 138
rush: success rate
0.388
288
112 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.076
288
26 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.475
288
19 of 138
pass: success rate
0.524
288
17 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.464
288
93 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.459
288
100 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.447
288
5 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.577
288
128 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.239
288
129 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
288
101 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.694
288
81 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.122
288
38 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.080
288
51 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.042
288
38 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.900
288
81 of 138
USA offence
USA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.174
308
63 of 138
success rate
0.419
308
91 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.302
308
38 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.177
308
47 of 138
rush: success rate
0.425
308
90 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.068
308
29 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.208
308
77 of 138
pass: success rate
0.421
308
85 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.639
308
50 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.448
308
111 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.354
308
45 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.182
308
62 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.121
308
16 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.792
308
44 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.296
308
48 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.146
308
77 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.088
308
72 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.058
308
80 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.300
308
93 of 138
APP defence
APP defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.080
272
78 of 138
success rate
0.423
272
92 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.132
272
34 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.051
272
79 of 138
rush: success rate
0.430
272
91 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.843
272
38 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.132
272
72 of 138
pass: success rate
0.416
272
84 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.397
272
31 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.510
272
118 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.212
272
17 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.620
272
45 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.227
272
107 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.842
272
119 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.727
272
95 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.176
272
84 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.107
272
83 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.070
272
95 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.600
272
100 of 138
USA defence
USA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.279
218
132 of 138
success rate
0.486
218
134 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.460
218
133 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.349
218
138 of 138
rush: success rate
0.505
218
134 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.380
218
137 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.210
218
89 of 138
pass: success rate
0.462
218
113 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.565
218
76 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.532
218
131 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.367
218
127 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.230
218
118 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.174
218
42 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.600
218
25 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.077
218
116 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.179
218
93 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.115
218
99 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.064
218
81 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.300
218
20 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs