Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). APP wins about 63% of the time at a number like ours.
GAST
Games
4
Plays per game
71.5
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-11.2 (111th, offence 85th, defence 125th)
Returning production
47% (pass 64%, rush 127%, receiving 28%)
APP
Games
4
Plays per game
72.0
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-4.4 (89th, offence 80th, defence 95th)
Returning production
38% (pass -31%, rush 85%, receiving 57%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
GAST
APP
pass rate, all downs
46%88th
52%38th
pass rate, standard downs
41%77th
47%31st
pass rate, 1st down
43%70th
47%41st
no-huddle share
85%35th
56%78th
pass rate, passing downs
61%84th
64%66th
pass rate, red zone
30%109th
30%111th
seconds per play (own drives)
29.462nd
27.0102nd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
GAST offence
GAST offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.251
286
39 of 138
success rate
0.479
286
39 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.296
286
43 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.184
286
43 of 138
rush: success rate
0.444
286
77 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.019
286
50 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.389
286
33 of 138
pass: success rate
0.520
286
21 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.560
286
67 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.491
286
72 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.444
286
6 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.301
286
40 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.176
286
82 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.632
286
114 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.345
286
44 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.105
286
18 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.052
286
13 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.052
286
64 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.700
286
86 of 138
APP offence
APP offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.238
288
44 of 138
success rate
0.455
288
55 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.312
288
34 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.048
288
93 of 138
rush: success rate
0.388
288
112 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.076
288
26 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.475
288
19 of 138
pass: success rate
0.524
288
17 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.464
288
93 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.459
288
100 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.447
288
5 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.577
288
128 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.239
288
129 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
288
101 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.694
288
81 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.122
288
38 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.080
288
51 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.042
288
38 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.900
288
81 of 138
GAST defence
GAST defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.024
242
66 of 138
success rate
0.380
242
59 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.294
242
94 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.174
242
121 of 138
rush: success rate
0.409
242
74 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.187
242
132 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.057
242
18 of 138
pass: success rate
0.365
242
40 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.383
242
28 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.449
242
70 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.256
242
46 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.091
242
107 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.209
242
87 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
1.000
242
138 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.227
242
59 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.178
242
88 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.116
242
101 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.062
242
69 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.400
242
39 of 138
APP defence
APP defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.080
272
78 of 138
success rate
0.423
272
92 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.132
272
34 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.051
272
79 of 138
rush: success rate
0.430
272
91 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.843
272
38 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.132
272
72 of 138
pass: success rate
0.416
272
84 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.397
272
31 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.510
272
118 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.212
272
17 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.620
272
45 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.227
272
107 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.842
272
119 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.727
272
95 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.176
272
84 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.107
272
83 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.070
272
95 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.600
272
100 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs