Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). APP wins about 63% of the time at a number like ours.
APP
Games
4
Plays per game
72.0
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-4.4 (89th, offence 80th, defence 95th)
Returning production
38% (pass -31%, rush 85%, receiving 57%)
CCU
Games
4
Plays per game
65.5
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-11.4 (112th, offence 96th, defence 119th)
Returning production
15% (pass 12%, rush 16%, receiving 17%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
APP
CCU
pass rate, all downs
52%38th
53%30th
pass rate, standard downs
47%31st
42%64th
pass rate, 1st down
47%41st
40%93rd
no-huddle share
56%78th
71%60th
pass rate, passing downs
64%66th
73%28th
pass rate, red zone
30%111th
53%13th
seconds per play (own drives)
27.0102nd
26.8106th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
APP offence
APP offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.238
288
44 of 138
success rate
0.455
288
55 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.312
288
34 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.048
288
93 of 138
rush: success rate
0.388
288
112 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.076
288
26 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.475
288
19 of 138
pass: success rate
0.524
288
17 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.464
288
93 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.459
288
100 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.447
288
5 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.577
288
128 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.239
288
129 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
288
101 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.694
288
81 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.122
288
38 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.080
288
51 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.042
288
38 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.900
288
81 of 138
CCU offence
CCU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.157
262
69 of 138
success rate
0.412
262
100 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.429
262
9 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.102
262
77 of 138
rush: success rate
0.444
262
76 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.878
262
91 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.240
262
70 of 138
pass: success rate
0.383
262
109 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.998
262
4 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.440
262
118 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.365
262
35 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.414
262
27 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.177
262
84 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.692
262
95 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.583
262
90 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.195
262
130 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.126
262
128 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.069
262
108 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.100
262
59 of 138
APP defence
APP defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.080
272
78 of 138
success rate
0.423
272
92 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.132
272
34 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.051
272
79 of 138
rush: success rate
0.430
272
91 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.843
272
38 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.132
272
72 of 138
pass: success rate
0.416
272
84 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.397
272
31 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.510
272
118 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.212
272
17 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.620
272
45 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.227
272
107 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.842
272
119 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.727
272
95 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.176
272
84 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.107
272
83 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.070
272
95 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.600
272
100 of 138
CCU defence
CCU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.095
264
83 of 138
success rate
0.451
264
117 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
0.939
264
2 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.005
264
57 of 138
rush: success rate
0.444
264
105 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.554
264
8 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.446
264
129 of 138
pass: success rate
0.489
264
126 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.589
264
84 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.505
264
115 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.274
264
60 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.182
264
112 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.123
264
8 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.810
264
109 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.160
264
57 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.148
264
46 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.098
264
67 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.049
264
37 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.000
264
47 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs