Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ARMY wins about 69% of the time at a number like ours.
ARMY
Games
3
Plays per game
67.3
Drives per game
10.0
SP+
-0.8 (72nd, offence 75th, defence 77th)
Returning production
80% (pass 63%, rush 89%, receiving 83%)
LT
Games
3
Plays per game
64.3
Drives per game
13.7
SP+
-9.8 (108th, offence 104th, defence 101st)
Returning production
64% (pass 99%, rush 79%, receiving 44%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
ARMY
LT
pass rate, all downs
16%138th
50%53rd
pass rate, standard downs
13%137th
42%69th
pass rate, 1st down
17%136th
47%37th
no-huddle share
10%122nd
67%65th
pass rate, red zone
10%137th
41%57th
pass rate, passing downs
25%138th
66%55th
seconds per play (own drives)
34.01st
27.986th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
ARMY offence
ARMY offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.365
202
10 of 138
success rate
0.550
202
4 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.029
202
135 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.395
202
3 of 138
rush: success rate
0.576
202
4 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.988
202
61 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.320
202
52 of 138
pass: success rate
0.500
202
29 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.201
202
137 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.610
202
4 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.289
202
92 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.827
202
7 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.097
202
4 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.889
202
6 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.409
202
39 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.045
202
1 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.045
202
6 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.000
202
1 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.600
202
89 of 138
LT offence
LT offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.015
193
118 of 138
success rate
0.337
193
134 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.443
193
7 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.077
193
127 of 138
rush: success rate
0.320
193
137 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.127
193
17 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.139
193
96 of 138
pass: success rate
0.359
193
123 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.797
193
19 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.373
193
135 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.269
193
107 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.648
193
124 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.227
193
125 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.500
193
134 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.700
193
24 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.181
193
123 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.114
193
119 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.067
193
102 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
64.700
193
132 of 138
ARMY defence
ARMY defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.189
162
118 of 138
success rate
0.438
162
105 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.245
162
81 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.177
162
122 of 138
rush: success rate
0.471
162
122 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.971
162
89 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.217
162
91 of 138
pass: success rate
0.413
162
79 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.598
162
88 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.487
162
99 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.327
162
108 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.274
162
121 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.188
162
58 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
162
82 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.833
162
36 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.130
162
24 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.068
162
13 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.062
162
68 of 138
opponent average starting field position
77.900
162
137 of 138
LT defence
LT defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.012
219
45 of 138
success rate
0.347
219
28 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.305
219
96 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.017
219
52 of 138
rush: success rate
0.325
219
24 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.018
219
96 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.119
219
67 of 138
pass: success rate
0.384
219
59 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.686
219
107 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.414
219
40 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.228
219
26 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.063
219
5 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.230
219
110 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
219
48 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.722
219
94 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.242
219
136 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.178
219
136 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.064
219
80 of 138
opponent average starting field position
65.300
219
1 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs