Line has moved -2.0 since we first saw it (ARMY -3.5 to ARMY -1.5).
Betting
Spread
ARMY favouredMarket ARMY −1.5Ours ARMY −7.7
LT favouredgap 6.2 toward ARMY
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| ARMY away | -1.5 | 24.5 | -125 | 53.3% | 55% |
| LT home | +1.5 | 23.0 | +105 | 46.8% | 46% |
| Total | 47.5 | |
ARMY -3.5 when first seen, now ARMY -1.5 · total 44.5 then, 47.5 now. Over -110 / under -110 · DraftKings, 2026-10-02 05:30 UTC.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| ARMY away | -7.5 | 27.6 | 69.6% | -6.0 |
| LT home | +7.5 | 19.9 | 30.4% | +6.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| ARMY away | -4.5 | 27.3 | 62.1% | -3.0 |
| LT home | +4.5 | 22.9 | 37.9% | +3.0 |
| Total | 50.2 | | | +2.7 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | ARMY | LT |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +1.548th | -2.890th |
| Defence (cards) | -1.196th | -2.2125th |
| Card team rating | +0.459th | -5.0100th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | -0.872nd | -9.8108th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -0.169th | -0.495th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | -0.170th | -0.7104th |
| Card line | LT +7.7 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 80% | 64% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Cale Hellums ARMY84 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.371
Completion64.0%
TD–INT2-0
Pass attempts, median game9
Pass yards, median game59
Rush yards, median game87
Games this season3
Team throws per game10.0
Trey Kukuk LT74 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.184
Completion62.7%
TD–INT3-1
Pass attempts, median game4
Pass yards, median game45
Rush yards, median game50
Games this season3
Team throws per game30.0
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| ARMY away | 1-1-1 | 50% | +3.8 | 2-1 | +2.2 |
| LT home | 3-0 | 100% | +12.2 | 3-0 | +12.8 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
| Team | Split | Streak (4+), and what happened next in 8,097 games |
|---|
| ARMY | away | covered 5 straight — next game covered 48.8% of the time (3066 cases) |
| ARMY | away favourite | covered 5 straight — next game covered 48.8% of the time (3066 cases) |
| ARMY | away favourite | won 6 straight — next game covered 49.8% of the time (9369 cases) |
| ARMY | away favourite | gone under 4 straight — next game went over 51.1% of the time (6939 cases) |
| LT | all | covered 4 straight — next game covered 49.4% of the time (6312 cases) |
| LT | all | gone over 4 straight — next game went over 47.1% of the time (5399 cases) |
| LT | underdog | covered 4 straight — next game covered 49.4% of the time (6312 cases) |
| LT | underdog | gone over 4 straight — next game went over 47.1% of the time (5399 cases) |
| LT | home underdog | gone over 14 straight — next game went over 38.9% of the time (36 cases) |
Streak picker (total): bets the under — LT has gone over 14 straight as home underdog.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Joe Aillet Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
Nothing in the news for either side. College publishes no official injury report, so absence of news is not a clean bill of health.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| ARMY | B. Mott WR | out Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Mott is managing with a undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face the Temple on Friday, September 25th. |
| ARMY | B. Luter QB | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Lutur is dealing with an Undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will play against the Temple on Friday, September 25th. |
| ARMY | N. Dolbin WR | questionable Undisclosed | Fri, Sep 25 | Dolbin is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will suit up against Louisiana Tech on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| LT | B. Baker QB | out Hand | Mon, Sep 14 | Baker fractured his hand, and he will miss an undetermined length of time. |
| LT | D. Benedix WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 13 | Benedix is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Baylor on Saturday, September 19th. |