Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). BAY wins about 84% of the time at a number like ours.
LT
Games
3
Plays per game
64.3
Drives per game
13.7
SP+
-9.8 (108th, offence 104th, defence 101st)
Returning production
64% (pass 99%, rush 79%, receiving 44%)
BAY
Games
4
Plays per game
82.2
Drives per game
13.8
SP+
8.1 (43rd, offence 55th, defence 31st)
Returning production
60% (pass 78%, rush 68%, receiving 47%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
LT
BAY
pass rate, all downs
50%53rd
51%47th
pass rate, standard downs
42%69th
40%83rd
pass rate, 1st down
47%37th
40%94th
no-huddle share
67%65th
99%1st
pass rate, passing downs
66%55th
75%17th
pass rate, red zone
41%57th
46%31st
seconds per play (own drives)
27.986th
23.3136th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
LT offence
LT offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.015
193
118 of 138
success rate
0.337
193
134 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.443
193
7 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.077
193
127 of 138
rush: success rate
0.320
193
137 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.127
193
17 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.139
193
96 of 138
pass: success rate
0.359
193
123 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.797
193
19 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.373
193
135 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.269
193
107 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.648
193
124 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.227
193
125 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.500
193
134 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.700
193
24 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.181
193
123 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.114
193
119 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.067
193
102 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
64.700
193
132 of 138
BAY offence
BAY offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.092
329
98 of 138
success rate
0.401
329
104 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.263
329
55 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.055
329
90 of 138
rush: success rate
0.444
329
75 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.862
329
97 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.177
329
87 of 138
pass: success rate
0.373
329
113 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.756
329
23 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.449
329
109 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.298
329
88 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.938
329
95 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.169
329
73 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.737
329
77 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.393
329
100 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.167
329
102 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.103
329
102 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.064
329
92 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
64.200
329
133 of 138
LT defence
LT defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.012
219
45 of 138
success rate
0.347
219
28 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.305
219
96 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.017
219
52 of 138
rush: success rate
0.325
219
24 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.018
219
96 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.119
219
67 of 138
pass: success rate
0.384
219
59 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.686
219
107 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.414
219
40 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.228
219
26 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.063
219
5 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.230
219
110 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
219
48 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.722
219
94 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.242
219
136 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.178
219
136 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.064
219
80 of 138
opponent average starting field position
65.300
219
1 of 138
BAY defence
BAY defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.115
290
16 of 138
success rate
0.321
290
12 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.139
290
38 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.257
290
5 of 138
rush: success rate
0.280
290
8 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.970
290
88 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.025
290
25 of 138
pass: success rate
0.344
290
23 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.284
290
9 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.361
290
9 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.252
290
43 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.503
290
31 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.264
290
129 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.400
290
4 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.958
290
5 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.214
290
127 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.138
290
122 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.076
290
105 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.100
290
51 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs