Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). TOL wins about 53% of the time at a number like ours.
TOL
Games
4
Plays per game
66.0
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
0.3 (67th, offence 67th, defence 68th)
Returning production
66% (pass 99%, rush 26%, receiving 58%)
OHIO
Games
4
Plays per game
66.2
Drives per game
10.2
SP+
-10.5 (109th, offence 105th, defence 101st)
Returning production
63% (pass 94%, rush 100%, receiving 17%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
TOL
OHIO
pass rate, all downs
49%63rd
43%105th
pass rate, standard downs
45%43rd
39%93rd
pass rate, 1st down
42%83rd
41%84th
no-huddle share
86%29th
89%23rd
pass rate, passing downs
57%100th
53%118th
pass rate, red zone
41%58th
33%95th
seconds per play (own drives)
28.082nd
30.437th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
TOL offence
TOL offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.269
264
34 of 138
success rate
0.447
264
62 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.527
264
1 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.106
264
75 of 138
rush: success rate
0.415
264
96 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.067
264
30 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.440
264
24 of 138
pass: success rate
0.484
264
40 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.935
264
7 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.497
264
63 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.329
264
59 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.077
264
74 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.170
264
75 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
264
106 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.552
264
37 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.136
264
62 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.072
264
38 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.064
264
97 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.300
264
106 of 138
OHIO offence
OHIO offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.223
265
53 of 138
success rate
0.442
265
69 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.257
265
57 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.286
265
16 of 138
rush: success rate
0.463
265
57 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.053
265
36 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.104
265
107 of 138
pass: success rate
0.396
265
100 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.555
265
69 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.516
265
47 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.272
265
104 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.566
265
14 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.101
265
8 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.864
265
12 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.280
265
51 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.137
265
63 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.070
265
31 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.067
265
103 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.700
265
88 of 138
TOL defence
TOL defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.023
289
39 of 138
success rate
0.325
289
15 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.302
289
95 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.095
289
29 of 138
rush: success rate
0.283
289
9 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.958
289
82 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.170
289
79 of 138
pass: success rate
0.391
289
69 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.580
289
82 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.386
289
19 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.210
289
16 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.621
289
46 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.207
289
85 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.389
289
3 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.875
289
41 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.135
289
31 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.073
289
24 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.062
289
72 of 138
opponent average starting field position
69.700
289
30 of 138
OHIO defence
OHIO defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.276
257
131 of 138
success rate
0.432
257
100 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.381
257
121 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.147
257
115 of 138
rush: success rate
0.405
257
71 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.088
257
118 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.490
257
135 of 138
pass: success rate
0.480
257
123 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.774
257
118 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.440
257
60 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.413
257
134 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.833
257
67 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.209
257
88 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
257
91 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.350
257
138 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.158
257
63 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.112
257
93 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.046
257
33 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.600
257
60 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs