Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). AKR wins about 57% of the time at a number like ours.
BUF
Games
4
Plays per game
76.5
Drives per game
14.0
SP+
-17.2 (124th, offence 129th, defence 107th)
Returning production
-1% (pass 9%, rush 9%, receiving -7%)
AKR
Games
4
Plays per game
65.5
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-23.1 (132nd, offence 130th, defence 130th)
Returning production
92% (pass 87%, rush 102%, receiving 92%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
BUF
AKR
pass rate, all downs
49%62nd
56%21st
pass rate, standard downs
41%74th
46%35th
pass rate, 1st down
39%97th
50%21st
no-huddle share
82%44th
98%3rd
pass rate, passing downs
65%58th
77%12th
pass rate, red zone
45%35th
48%25th
seconds per play (own drives)
24.4133rd
28.181st
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
BUF offence
BUF offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.000
306
122 of 138
success rate
0.333
306
136 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.219
306
72 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.027
306
120 of 138
rush: success rate
0.340
306
133 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.918
306
82 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.047
306
114 of 138
pass: success rate
0.324
306
132 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.502
306
83 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.379
306
134 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.240
306
119 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.704
306
119 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.192
306
95 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
306
34 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.250
306
53 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.163
306
97 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.101
306
98 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.062
306
90 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.600
306
39 of 138
AKR offence
AKR offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.020
262
117 of 138
success rate
0.443
262
66 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
0.981
262
137 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.099
262
79 of 138
rush: success rate
0.513
262
19 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.709
262
129 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.027
262
117 of 138
pass: success rate
0.410
262
92 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.262
262
134 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.500
262
59 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.308
262
74 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.619
262
12 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.130
262
23 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.818
262
27 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.950
262
69 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.198
262
131 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.122
262
126 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.076
262
119 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
75.400
262
4 of 138
BUF defence
BUF defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.116
276
91 of 138
success rate
0.366
276
44 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.445
276
131 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.017
276
64 of 138
rush: success rate
0.385
276
56 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.926
276
73 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.251
276
97 of 138
pass: success rate
0.367
276
43 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.955
276
135 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.429
276
54 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.257
276
47 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.039
276
100 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.192
276
65 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.625
276
32 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.536
276
81 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.152
276
53 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.076
276
31 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.076
276
106 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.200
276
15 of 138
AKR defence
AKR defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.241
246
129 of 138
success rate
0.431
246
98 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.372
246
115 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.045
246
76 of 138
rush: success rate
0.436
246
101 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.878
246
55 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.494
246
136 of 138
pass: success rate
0.419
246
90 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.910
246
134 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.482
246
94 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.316
246
102 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.891
246
73 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.188
246
57 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.688
246
55 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.792
246
99 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.150
246
50 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.081
246
37 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.069
246
91 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.400
246
22 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs