Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). TOL wins about 63% of the time at a number like ours.
MASS
Games
4
Plays per game
55.0
Drives per game
11.0
SP+
-6.2 (93rd, offence 101st, defence 82nd)
Returning production
-57% (pass -36%, rush 221%, receiving -11%)
TOL
Games
4
Plays per game
66.0
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
0.3 (67th, offence 67th, defence 68th)
Returning production
66% (pass 99%, rush 26%, receiving 58%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
MASS
TOL
pass rate, all downs
38%127th
49%63rd
pass rate, standard downs
31%127th
45%43rd
pass rate, 1st down
33%118th
42%83rd
no-huddle share
8%126th
86%29th
pass rate, passing downs
56%108th
57%100th
pass rate, red zone
22%125th
41%58th
seconds per play (own drives)
31.615th
28.082nd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
MASS offence
MASS offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.280
220
30 of 138
success rate
0.450
220
59 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.237
220
65 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.267
220
18 of 138
rush: success rate
0.481
220
39 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.022
220
47 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.362
220
44 of 138
pass: success rate
0.407
220
94 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.671
220
39 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.510
220
50 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.302
220
81 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.520
220
18 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.141
220
40 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.550
220
128 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.889
220
72 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.095
220
12 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.073
220
39 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.023
220
6 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.000
220
131 of 138
TOL offence
TOL offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.269
264
34 of 138
success rate
0.447
264
62 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.527
264
1 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.106
264
75 of 138
rush: success rate
0.415
264
96 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.067
264
30 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.440
264
24 of 138
pass: success rate
0.484
264
40 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.935
264
7 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.497
264
63 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.329
264
59 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.077
264
74 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.170
264
75 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
264
106 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.552
264
37 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.136
264
62 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.072
264
38 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.064
264
97 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.300
264
106 of 138
MASS defence
MASS defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.139
273
11 of 138
success rate
0.366
273
45 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.020
273
6 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.277
273
4 of 138
rush: success rate
0.353
273
35 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.316
273
1 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.046
273
44 of 138
pass: success rate
0.389
273
65 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.531
273
63 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.421
273
47 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.263
273
53 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.567
273
38 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.218
273
101 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.706
273
64 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.500
273
1 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.161
273
69 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.088
273
50 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.073
273
100 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.300
273
123 of 138
TOL defence
TOL defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.023
289
39 of 138
success rate
0.325
289
15 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.302
289
95 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.095
289
29 of 138
rush: success rate
0.283
289
9 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.958
289
82 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.170
289
79 of 138
pass: success rate
0.391
289
69 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.580
289
82 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.386
289
19 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.210
289
16 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.621
289
46 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.207
289
85 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.389
289
3 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.875
289
41 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.135
289
31 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.073
289
24 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.062
289
72 of 138
opponent average starting field position
69.700
289
30 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs