Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). CMU wins about 72% of the time at a number like ours.
SAC
Games
5
Plays per game
69.8
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
-22.9 (131st, offence 133rd, defence 124th)
Returning production
— (pass —, rush —, receiving —)
CMU
Games
4
Plays per game
57.0
Drives per game
10.2
SP+
-18.7 (129th, offence 136th, defence 100th)
Returning production
54% (pass 9%, rush 123%, receiving 65%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
SAC
CMU
pass rate, all downs
58%9th
35%133rd
pass rate, standard downs
47%32nd
25%133rd
pass rate, 1st down
46%44th
32%121st
no-huddle share
16%116th
2%137th
pass rate, passing downs
85%2nd
56%107th
pass rate, red zone
51%16th
20%129th
seconds per play (own drives)
28.577th
32.69th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
SAC offence
SAC offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.061
349
131 of 138
success rate
0.418
349
95 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.005
349
136 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.089
349
131 of 138
rush: success rate
0.476
349
41 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.705
349
131 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.002
349
123 of 138
pass: success rate
0.387
349
103 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.274
349
132 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.496
349
64 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.228
349
126 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.691
349
121 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.252
349
135 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
349
70 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.552
349
129 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.169
349
108 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.083
349
58 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.086
349
132 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.100
349
62 of 138
CMU offence
CMU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.000
228
123 of 138
success rate
0.351
228
129 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.196
228
87 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.135
228
68 of 138
rush: success rate
0.401
228
102 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.107
228
22 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.180
228
137 of 138
pass: success rate
0.263
228
138 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.423
228
107 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.395
228
131 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.254
228
112 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.181
228
63 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.129
228
22 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.826
228
25 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.000
228
119 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.162
228
94 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.096
228
87 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.066
228
99 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.400
228
51 of 138
SAC defence
SAC defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.125
303
97 of 138
success rate
0.360
303
40 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.417
303
128 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.037
303
43 of 138
rush: success rate
0.323
303
22 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.113
303
121 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.341
303
119 of 138
pass: success rate
0.414
303
82 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.674
303
105 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.436
303
58 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.208
303
14 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.912
303
83 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.180
303
49 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.500
303
9 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.821
303
100 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.122
303
15 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.089
303
53 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.033
303
7 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.200
303
72 of 138
CMU defence
CMU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.166
264
114 of 138
success rate
0.473
264
132 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.118
264
29 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.118
264
104 of 138
rush: success rate
0.496
264
133 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.862
264
43 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.153
264
75 of 138
pass: success rate
0.434
264
102 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.329
264
17 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.522
264
126 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.366
264
126 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.534
264
137 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.135
264
14 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.933
264
136 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.393
264
70 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.144
264
42 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.068
264
14 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.076
264
107 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.300
264
19 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs