Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). WMU wins about 73% of the time at a number like ours.
WMU
Games
4
Plays per game
61.2
Drives per game
10.8
SP+
-7.2 (96th, offence 113th, defence 72nd)
Returning production
100% (pass 100%, rush 100%, receiving 100%)
AKR
Games
4
Plays per game
65.5
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-23.1 (132nd, offence 130th, defence 130th)
Returning production
92% (pass 87%, rush 102%, receiving 92%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
WMU
AKR
pass rate, all downs
43%109th
56%21st
pass rate, standard downs
39%89th
46%35th
pass rate, 1st down
46%49th
50%21st
no-huddle share
19%113th
98%3rd
pass rate, passing downs
50%128th
77%12th
pass rate, red zone
18%131st
48%25th
seconds per play (own drives)
33.63rd
28.181st
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
WMU offence
WMU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.093
245
97 of 138
success rate
0.400
245
108 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.167
245
99 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.147
245
63 of 138
rush: success rate
0.413
245
97 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.979
245
64 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.006
245
126 of 138
pass: success rate
0.380
245
111 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.426
245
106 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.450
245
108 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.306
245
75 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.870
245
101 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.167
245
67 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.737
245
78 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.364
245
42 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.131
245
49 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.094
245
86 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.037
245
23 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.600
245
92 of 138
AKR offence
AKR offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.020
262
117 of 138
success rate
0.443
262
66 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
0.981
262
137 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.099
262
79 of 138
rush: success rate
0.513
262
19 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.709
262
129 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.027
262
117 of 138
pass: success rate
0.410
262
92 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.262
262
134 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.500
262
59 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.308
262
74 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.619
262
12 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.130
262
23 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.818
262
27 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.950
262
69 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.198
262
131 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.122
262
126 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.076
262
119 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
75.400
262
4 of 138
WMU defence
WMU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.099
269
86 of 138
success rate
0.465
269
125 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.025
269
10 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.022
269
66 of 138
rush: success rate
0.450
269
108 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.720
269
18 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.173
269
81 of 138
pass: success rate
0.464
269
115 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.440
269
42 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.477
269
91 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.432
269
137 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.051
269
103 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.172
269
41 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.720
269
70 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.650
269
89 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.108
269
4 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.056
269
3 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.052
269
45 of 138
opponent average starting field position
76.300
269
132 of 138
AKR defence
AKR defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.241
246
129 of 138
success rate
0.431
246
98 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.372
246
115 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.045
246
76 of 138
rush: success rate
0.436
246
101 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.878
246
55 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.494
246
136 of 138
pass: success rate
0.419
246
90 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.910
246
134 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.482
246
94 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.316
246
102 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.891
246
73 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.188
246
57 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.688
246
55 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.792
246
99 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.150
246
50 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.081
246
37 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.069
246
91 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.400
246
22 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs