Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). TOL wins about 63% of the time at a number like ours.
TOL
Games
4
Plays per game
66.0
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
0.3 (67th, offence 67th, defence 68th)
Returning production
66% (pass 99%, rush 26%, receiving 58%)
SAC
Games
5
Plays per game
69.8
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
-22.9 (131st, offence 133rd, defence 124th)
Returning production
— (pass —, rush —, receiving —)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
TOL
SAC
pass rate, all downs
49%63rd
58%9th
pass rate, standard downs
45%43rd
47%32nd
pass rate, 1st down
42%83rd
46%44th
no-huddle share
86%29th
16%116th
pass rate, passing downs
57%100th
85%2nd
pass rate, red zone
41%58th
51%16th
seconds per play (own drives)
28.082nd
28.577th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
TOL offence
TOL offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.269
264
34 of 138
success rate
0.447
264
62 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.527
264
1 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.106
264
75 of 138
rush: success rate
0.415
264
96 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.067
264
30 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.440
264
24 of 138
pass: success rate
0.484
264
40 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.935
264
7 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.497
264
63 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.329
264
59 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.077
264
74 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.170
264
75 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
264
106 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.552
264
37 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.136
264
62 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.072
264
38 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.064
264
97 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.300
264
106 of 138
SAC offence
SAC offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.061
349
131 of 138
success rate
0.418
349
95 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.005
349
136 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.089
349
131 of 138
rush: success rate
0.476
349
41 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.705
349
131 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.002
349
123 of 138
pass: success rate
0.387
349
103 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.274
349
132 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.496
349
64 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.228
349
126 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.691
349
121 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.252
349
135 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
349
70 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.552
349
129 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.169
349
108 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.083
349
58 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.086
349
132 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.100
349
62 of 138
TOL defence
TOL defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.023
289
39 of 138
success rate
0.325
289
15 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.302
289
95 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.095
289
29 of 138
rush: success rate
0.283
289
9 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.958
289
82 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.170
289
79 of 138
pass: success rate
0.391
289
69 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.580
289
82 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.386
289
19 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.210
289
16 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.621
289
46 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.207
289
85 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.389
289
3 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.875
289
41 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.135
289
31 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.073
289
24 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.062
289
72 of 138
opponent average starting field position
69.700
289
30 of 138
SAC defence
SAC defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.125
303
97 of 138
success rate
0.360
303
40 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.417
303
128 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.037
303
43 of 138
rush: success rate
0.323
303
22 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.113
303
121 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.341
303
119 of 138
pass: success rate
0.414
303
82 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.674
303
105 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.436
303
58 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.208
303
14 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.912
303
83 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.180
303
49 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.500
303
9 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.821
303
100 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.122
303
15 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.089
303
53 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.033
303
7 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.200
303
72 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs