Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). TOL wins about 54% of the time at a number like ours.
TOL
Games
4
Plays per game
66.0
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
0.3 (67th, offence 67th, defence 68th)
Returning production
66% (pass 99%, rush 26%, receiving 58%)
BALL
Games
4
Plays per game
61.5
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-25.0 (135th, offence 133rd, defence 133rd)
Returning production
6% (pass 0%, rush -104%, receiving 32%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
TOL
BALL
pass rate, all downs
49%63rd
53%29th
pass rate, standard downs
45%43rd
49%17th
pass rate, 1st down
42%83rd
45%50th
no-huddle share
86%29th
50%83rd
pass rate, passing downs
57%100th
61%81st
pass rate, red zone
41%58th
52%14th
seconds per play (own drives)
28.082nd
30.825th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
TOL offence
TOL offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.269
264
34 of 138
success rate
0.447
264
62 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.527
264
1 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.106
264
75 of 138
rush: success rate
0.415
264
96 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.067
264
30 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.440
264
24 of 138
pass: success rate
0.484
264
40 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.935
264
7 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.497
264
63 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.329
264
59 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.077
264
74 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.170
264
75 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
264
106 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.552
264
37 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.136
264
62 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.072
264
38 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.064
264
97 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.300
264
106 of 138
BALL offence
BALL offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.047
246
110 of 138
success rate
0.337
246
133 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.417
246
14 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.090
246
83 of 138
rush: success rate
0.357
246
127 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.156
246
13 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.072
246
109 of 138
pass: success rate
0.339
246
128 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.596
246
57 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.392
246
133 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.247
246
115 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.542
246
132 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.214
246
118 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.889
246
7 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.625
246
87 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.199
246
132 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.138
246
134 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.061
246
84 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.700
246
34 of 138
TOL defence
TOL defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.023
289
39 of 138
success rate
0.325
289
15 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.302
289
95 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.095
289
29 of 138
rush: success rate
0.283
289
9 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.958
289
82 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.170
289
79 of 138
pass: success rate
0.391
289
69 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.580
289
82 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.386
289
19 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.210
289
16 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.621
289
46 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.207
289
85 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.389
289
3 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.875
289
41 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.135
289
31 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.073
289
24 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.062
289
72 of 138
opponent average starting field position
69.700
289
30 of 138
BALL defence
BALL defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.325
270
136 of 138
success rate
0.452
270
118 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.455
270
132 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.256
270
133 of 138
rush: success rate
0.420
270
83 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.352
270
136 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.455
270
131 of 138
pass: success rate
0.500
270
129 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.556
270
72 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.495
270
105 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.354
270
123 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.010
270
94 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.188
270
59 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
270
98 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.042
270
133 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.119
270
11 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.074
270
25 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.044
270
27 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.400
270
55 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs