Toledo · away
at
TOL -20.5
Saturday 2026-10-03 14:00 · Scheumann Stadium
Ball State · home
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The trenches

Pass rushsack ratestopped behind the linefacessacks allowedpairing
BALL pass rush3.3% 90102nd7.5% 20195thfaces TOL2.1% 9612th2.7% ~0.9 sacks
TOL pass rush7.1% 9937th6.9% 218110thfaces BALL4.5% 8960th5.8% ~1.9 sacks

sacks from CFBD play-by-play; college has no charted pressure, and these rates are not opponent-adjusted Measured on 7,926 team-games 2022–25: a college line's sacks-allowed rate carries +0.27 into its next game and a defence's sack rate only +0.10 — the line is most of this. The pairing predicts the game's sack rate +0.27, yards per dropback −0.16 and points added per play −0.15. Heaviest quarter of pairings against lightest: 7.8% vs 4.2% sack rate, 6.1 vs 7.2 yards per dropback.

TOL with the ball

TOL offence vs BALL defenceTOL offenceBALL defencerank gap
points added per play0.26934th0.325136th+102
success rate0.44762nd0.452118th+56
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)1.5271st1.455132nd+131
rush: points added per play0.10675th0.256133rd+58
rush: success rate0.41596th0.42083rd-13
rush: explosiveness1.06730th1.352136th+106
pass: points added per play0.44024th0.455131st+107
pass: success rate0.48440th0.500129th+89
pass: explosiveness1.9357th1.55672nd+65
standard downs: success rate0.49763rd0.495105th+42
passing downs: success rate0.32959th0.354123rd+64
line yards per rush (the O-line)3.07774th3.01094th+20
rushes stopped at or behind the line0.17075th0.18859th-16
short-yardage conversion rate0.667106th0.77898th-8
points per trip inside the 404.55237th5.042133rd+96
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)0.13662nd0.11911th-51
havoc allowed by the front seven0.07238th0.07425th-13
havoc allowed by the secondary0.06497th0.04427th-70
average starting field position (yards from own goal)68.300106th——

BALL with the ball

BALL offence vs TOL defenceBALL offenceTOL defencerank gap
points added per play0.047110th-0.02339th-71
success rate0.337133rd0.32515th-118
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)1.41714th1.30295th+81
rush: points added per play0.09083rd-0.09529th-54
rush: success rate0.357127th0.2839th-118
rush: explosiveness1.15613th0.95882nd+69
pass: points added per play0.072109th0.17079th-30
pass: success rate0.339128th0.39169th-59
pass: explosiveness1.59657th1.58082nd+25
standard downs: success rate0.392133rd0.38619th-114
passing downs: success rate0.247115th0.21016th-99
line yards per rush (the O-line)2.542132nd2.62146th-86
rushes stopped at or behind the line0.214118th0.20785th-33
short-yardage conversion rate0.8897th0.3893rd-4
points per trip inside the 403.62587th2.87541st-46
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)0.199132nd0.13531st-101
havoc allowed by the front seven0.138134th0.07324th-110
havoc allowed by the secondary0.06184th0.06272nd-12
average starting field position (yards from own goal)72.70034th——

Rank gap = the defence's FBS rank minus the offence's on the same measure: +60 means the offence ranks 60 places better than the defence it faces. Unit against unit only — college has no player charting to name a matchup by.