Line has moved +3.0 since we first saw it (TOL -17.5 to TOL -20.5).
Betting
Spread
TOL favouredMarket TOL −20.5Ours TOL −2.1
BALL favouredgap 18.4 toward BALL
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| TOL away | -20.5 | 36.5 | -1350 | 89.3% | 91% |
| BALL home | +20.5 | 16.0 | +800 | 10.7% | 10% |
| Total | 52.5 | |
TOL -17.5 when first seen, now TOL -20.5 · total 51.5 then, 52.5 now. Over -108 / under -112 · DraftKings, 2026-10-02 05:30 UTC.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| TOL away | -2.0 | 27.3 | 56.0% | +18.5 |
| BALL home | +2.0 | 25.2 | 44.0% | -18.5 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| TOL away | -21.5 | 36.5 | 94.3% | -1.0 |
| BALL home | +21.5 | 14.8 | 5.7% | +1.0 |
| Total | 51.4 | | | -1.1 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | TOL | BALL |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | -4.6109th | -6.7133rd |
| Defence (cards) | -1.6108th | -1.9112th |
| Card team rating | -6.1111th | -8.6130th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +0.367th | -25.0135th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +0.160th | -1.1135th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +0.164th | -1.8136th |
| Card line | BALL +2.1 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 66% | 6% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
John Alan Richter TOL75 ▲2 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.532
Completion66.9%
TD–INT12-1
Pass attempts, median game23
Pass yards, median game268
Rush yards, median game0
Games this season4
Team throws per game31.2
Tyler Mizzell BALL69 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.168
Completion58.1%
TD–INT1-0
Pass attempts, median game2
Pass yards, median game16
Rush yards, median game0
Games this season4
Team throws per game29.2
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| TOL away | 2-1-1 | 67% | +8.9 | 4-0 | +19.3 |
| BALL home | 1-3 | 25% | -6.0 | 3-1 | +3.3 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
| Team | Split | Streak (4+), and what happened next in 8,097 games |
|---|
| TOL | day | won 6 straight — next game covered 49.8% of the time (9369 cases) |
| TOL | favourite | won 6 straight — next game covered 49.8% of the time (9369 cases) |
| TOL | favourite of 7+ | won 4 straight — next game covered 50.4% of the time (16696 cases) |
| TOL | division | won 5 straight — next game covered 50.1% of the time (12375 cases) |
| BALL | all | failed to cover 4 straight — next game covered 52.7% of the time (6098 cases) |
| BALL | all | lost 6 straight — next game covered 50.2% of the time (7379 cases) |
| BALL | underdog | failed to cover 4 straight — next game covered 52.7% of the time (6098 cases) |
| BALL | underdog | lost 7 straight — next game covered 50.2% of the time (7379 cases) |
| BALL | day | failed to cover 4 straight — next game covered 52.7% of the time (6098 cases) |
| BALL | day | lost 6 straight — next game covered 50.2% of the time (7379 cases) |
| BALL | division | lost 4 straight — next game covered 50.6% of the time (14163 cases) |
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Scheumann Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
Nothing in the news for either side. College publishes no official injury report, so absence of news is not a clean bill of health.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| TOL | T. Kelleher TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Kelleher is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Ball St. on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| TOL | K. Gilbert Jr. WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Gilbert is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Ball St. on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| TOL | T. Jones WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Jones is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Ball St. on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| BALL | K. Luster QB | questionable Undisclosed | Mon, Sep 28 | Luster is hobbled by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Toledo on Saturday. |
| BALL | T. Horton RB | questionable Undisclosed | Mon, Sep 28 | Horton is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Toledo on Saturday. |
| BALL | C. Coonrod TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Coonrod is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will suit up against Toledo on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| BALL | D. Talbert WR | out Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Talbert is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date. |
| BALL | C. Breveard RB | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Breveard is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Toledo on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| BALL | C. Thompson Jr. WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Thompson is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will play against Toledo on Saturday, October 3rd. |