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Final null 17 – 21 BUF
Thursday 2026-09-03 19:00 · UB Stadium
Buffalo · home
GameNewsMismatchesTeamPersonnelBettingResults

The units, side by side

Units not built yet.

What actually happens around a number like this

Needs the card line and the college margin distribution.

null

Games—
Plays per game—
Drives per game—
SP+— (, offence , defence )
Returning production— (pass —, rush —, receiving —)

BUF

Games4
Plays per game76.5
Drives per game14.0
SP+-17.2 (124th, offence 129th, defence 107th)
Returning production-1% (pass 9%, rush 9%, receiving -7%)

What each side chooses to do

OffenceBUF
pass rate, all downs—49%62nd
pass rate, standard downs—41%74th
pass rate, 1st down—39%97th
no-huddle share—82%44th
pass rate, passing downs—65%58th
pass rate, red zone—45%35th
seconds per play (own drives)—24.4133rd

choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.

null offence

offencevalueplaysFBS rank

BUF offence

BUF offencevalueplaysFBS rank
points added per play0.000306122 of 138
success rate0.333306136 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)1.21930672 of 138
rush: points added per play-0.027306120 of 138
rush: success rate0.340306133 of 138
rush: explosiveness0.91830682 of 138
pass: points added per play0.047306114 of 138
pass: success rate0.324306132 of 138
pass: explosiveness1.50230683 of 138
standard downs: success rate0.379306134 of 138
passing downs: success rate0.240306119 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)2.704306119 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line0.19230695 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate0.80030634 of 138
points per trip inside the 404.25030653 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)0.16330697 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven0.10130698 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary0.06230690 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)72.60030639 of 138

null defence

defencevalueplaysFBS rank

BUF defence

BUF defencevalueplaysFBS rank
points added per play0.11627691 of 138
success rate0.36627644 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)1.445276131 of 138
rush: points added per play0.01727664 of 138
rush: success rate0.38527656 of 138
rush: explosiveness0.92627673 of 138
pass: points added per play0.25127697 of 138
pass: success rate0.36727643 of 138
pass: explosiveness1.955276135 of 138
standard downs: success rate0.42927654 of 138
passing downs: success rate0.25727647 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)3.039276100 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line0.19227665 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate0.62527632 of 138
points per trip inside the 403.53627681 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)0.15227653 of 138
havoc created by the front seven0.07627631 of 138
havoc created by the secondary0.076276106 of 138
opponent average starting field position68.20027615 of 138

points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs