Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). UK wins about 95% of the time at a number like ours.
USA
Games
4
Plays per game
77.0
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-15.4 (121st, offence 88th, defence 136th)
Returning production
79% (pass 95%, rush 62%, receiving 80%)
UK
Games
4
Plays per game
63.0
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
8.0 (44th, offence 40th, defence 47th)
Returning production
19% (pass -3%, rush -9%, receiving 35%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
USA
UK
pass rate, all downs
42%112th
45%97th
pass rate, standard downs
37%111th
42%68th
pass rate, 1st down
40%95th
39%96th
no-huddle share
92%18th
14%117th
pass rate, passing downs
54%116th
56%109th
pass rate, red zone
29%115th
33%96th
seconds per play (own drives)
29.561st
30.535th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
USA offence
USA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.174
308
63 of 138
success rate
0.419
308
91 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.302
308
38 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.177
308
47 of 138
rush: success rate
0.425
308
90 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.068
308
29 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.208
308
77 of 138
pass: success rate
0.421
308
85 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.639
308
50 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.448
308
111 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.354
308
45 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.182
308
62 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.121
308
16 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.792
308
44 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.296
308
48 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.146
308
77 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.088
308
72 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.058
308
80 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.300
308
93 of 138
UK offence
UK offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.236
252
47 of 138
success rate
0.516
252
12 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.203
252
84 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.209
252
37 of 138
rush: success rate
0.548
252
7 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.948
252
75 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.267
252
66 of 138
pass: success rate
0.463
252
53 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.584
252
60 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.571
252
12 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.321
252
66 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.460
252
25 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.156
252
56 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.765
252
57 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.875
252
20 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.135
252
61 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.091
252
77 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.044
252
47 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.100
252
96 of 138
USA defence
USA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.279
218
132 of 138
success rate
0.486
218
134 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.460
218
133 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.349
218
138 of 138
rush: success rate
0.505
218
134 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.380
218
137 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.210
218
89 of 138
pass: success rate
0.462
218
113 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.565
218
76 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.532
218
131 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.367
218
127 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.230
218
118 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.174
218
42 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.600
218
25 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.077
218
116 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.179
218
93 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.115
218
99 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.064
218
81 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.300
218
20 of 138
UK defence
UK defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.016
290
57 of 138
success rate
0.417
290
88 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.190
290
55 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.141
290
113 of 138
rush: success rate
0.432
290
93 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.077
290
114 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.037
290
20 of 138
pass: success rate
0.418
290
87 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.287
290
11 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.448
290
69 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.348
290
121 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.806
290
65 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.168
290
35 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
290
99 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.577
290
82 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.183
290
100 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.083
290
43 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.100
290
134 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.900
290
24 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs