Line has moved -0.5 since we first saw it (UK -20.5 to UK -21).
Betting
Spread
USA favouredMarket UK −20.5Ours UK −27.1
UK favouredgap 6.6 toward UK
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| USA away | +20.5 | 17.0 | +900 | 9.6% | 9% |
| UK home | -20.5 | 37.5 | -1600 | 90.4% | 92% |
| Total | 54.5 | |
UK -20.5 when first seen, now UK -20.5 · total 54.5 then, 54.5 now. The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| USA away | +27.0 | 13.7 | 4.3% | +6.5 |
| UK home | -27.0 | 40.8 | 95.7% | -6.5 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| USA away | +19.5 | 16.6 | 8.6% | -1.0 |
| UK home | -19.5 | 36.0 | 91.4% | +1.0 |
| Total | 52.6 | | | -1.9 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | USA | UK |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | -7.2135th | +3.039th |
| Defence (cards) | -2.7133rd | +0.257th |
| Card team rating | -9.9136th | +3.241st |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | -15.4121st | +8.044th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -0.5100th | +0.435th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | -0.9112th | +0.740th |
| Card line | UK -27.1 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 79% | 19% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Jared Hollins USA68 overall · Sophomore
Points added per play0.117
Completion57.1%
TD–INT3-2
Pass attempts, median game20
Pass yards, median game192
Rush yards, median game18
Games this season3
Team throws per game30.5
Kenny Minchey UK81 ▲1 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.209
Completion68.3%
TD–INT8-1
Pass attempts, median game26
Pass yards, median game215
Rush yards, median game-6
Games this season4
Team throws per game25.5
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| USA away | 2-2 | 50% | +2.9 | 3-1 | +10.5 |
| UK home | 3-1 | 75% | +5.3 | 3-1 | +6.5 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
| Venue | Kroger Field · turf · 1009 ft |
| Forecast at kickoff | 67°F, wind 6 mph, rain 0.00 in |
| Rest | USA 6 days · UK 6 days |
| Travel | USA 548 miles, body clock 11:45am at kickoff, +861 ft elevation |
Who is out (reported)
Nothing in the news for either side. College publishes no official injury report, so absence of news is not a clean bill of health.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| USA | K. Marion WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Marion has been out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season. |
| USA | D. White WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | White is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is not projected to face against Louisiana-Monroe on Saturday. |
| USA | B. Barnes WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Barnes has been out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season. |
| USA | M. Lynch TE | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Lynch has been out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season. |
| UK | D. Miller WR | questionable Leg | Sat, Sep 26 | Miller exited the game with a leg injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against the Gamecocks on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| UK | L. Watkins TE | out Undisclosed | Wed, Sep 16 | Watkins is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he will be out of the lineup against Texas A&M on Saturday. |
| UK | T. Mizell RB | out Undisclosed | Sat, Aug 22 | Mizell is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and he is projected to miss the remainder of the season. |