Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). TULN wins about 80% of the time at a number like ours.
USA
Games
4
Plays per game
77.0
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-15.4 (121st, offence 88th, defence 136th)
Returning production
79% (pass 95%, rush 62%, receiving 80%)
TULN
Games
4
Plays per game
61.2
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-7.3 (97th, offence 109th, defence 80th)
Returning production
21% (pass 0%, rush 60%, receiving 28%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
USA
TULN
pass rate, all downs
42%112th
49%61st
pass rate, standard downs
37%111th
41%73rd
pass rate, 1st down
40%95th
44%61st
no-huddle share
92%18th
69%62nd
pass rate, passing downs
54%116th
61%82nd
pass rate, red zone
29%115th
32%101st
seconds per play (own drives)
29.561st
26.4113th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
USA offence
USA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.174
308
63 of 138
success rate
0.419
308
91 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.302
308
38 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.177
308
47 of 138
rush: success rate
0.425
308
90 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.068
308
29 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.208
308
77 of 138
pass: success rate
0.421
308
85 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.639
308
50 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.448
308
111 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.354
308
45 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.182
308
62 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.121
308
16 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.792
308
44 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.296
308
48 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.146
308
77 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.088
308
72 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.058
308
80 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.300
308
93 of 138
TULN offence
TULN offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.103
245
92 of 138
success rate
0.343
245
131 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.513
245
3 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.161
245
51 of 138
rush: success rate
0.379
245
118 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.346
245
1 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.020
245
120 of 138
pass: success rate
0.304
245
134 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.703
245
34 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.408
245
128 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.237
245
122 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.573
245
129 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.218
245
120 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
245
72 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.474
245
132 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.200
245
133 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.135
245
133 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.065
245
98 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
75.100
245
6 of 138
USA defence
USA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.279
218
132 of 138
success rate
0.486
218
134 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.460
218
133 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.349
218
138 of 138
rush: success rate
0.505
218
134 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.380
218
137 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.210
218
89 of 138
pass: success rate
0.462
218
113 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.565
218
76 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.532
218
131 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.367
218
127 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.230
218
118 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.174
218
42 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.600
218
25 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.077
218
116 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.179
218
93 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.115
218
99 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.064
218
81 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.300
218
20 of 138
TULN defence
TULN defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.171
283
115 of 138
success rate
0.396
283
72 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.306
283
97 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.112
283
101 of 138
rush: success rate
0.370
283
48 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.074
283
112 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.300
283
110 of 138
pass: success rate
0.443
283
107 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.546
283
69 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.441
283
62 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.317
283
104 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.086
283
106 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.162
283
33 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.769
283
97 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.308
283
65 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.110
283
6 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.067
283
11 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.042
283
24 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.700
283
86 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs