Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). NCSU wins about 76% of the time at a number like ours.
APP
Games
4
Plays per game
72.0
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-4.4 (89th, offence 80th, defence 95th)
Returning production
38% (pass -31%, rush 85%, receiving 57%)
NCSU
Games
4
Plays per game
70.2
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
3.4 (58th, offence 37th, defence 84th)
Returning production
60% (pass 93%, rush 101%, receiving 26%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
APP
NCSU
pass rate, all downs
52%38th
47%80th
pass rate, standard downs
47%31st
37%110th
pass rate, 1st down
47%41st
41%86th
no-huddle share
56%78th
44%87th
pass rate, passing downs
64%66th
71%32nd
pass rate, red zone
30%111th
39%66th
seconds per play (own drives)
27.0102nd
28.971st
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
APP offence
APP offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.238
288
44 of 138
success rate
0.455
288
55 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.312
288
34 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.048
288
93 of 138
rush: success rate
0.388
288
112 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.076
288
26 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.475
288
19 of 138
pass: success rate
0.524
288
17 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.464
288
93 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.459
288
100 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.447
288
5 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.577
288
128 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.239
288
129 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
288
101 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.694
288
81 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.122
288
38 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.080
288
51 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.042
288
38 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.900
288
81 of 138
NCSU offence
NCSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.221
281
54 of 138
success rate
0.488
281
33 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.209
281
77 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.215
281
36 of 138
rush: success rate
0.493
281
30 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.037
281
41 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.257
281
67 of 138
pass: success rate
0.484
281
39 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.406
281
110 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.548
281
30 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.341
281
51 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.295
281
41 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.149
281
47 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.840
281
21 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.679
281
25 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.157
281
88 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.093
281
82 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.064
281
95 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.900
281
64 of 138
APP defence
APP defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.080
272
78 of 138
success rate
0.423
272
92 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.132
272
34 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.051
272
79 of 138
rush: success rate
0.430
272
91 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.843
272
38 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.132
272
72 of 138
pass: success rate
0.416
272
84 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.397
272
31 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.510
272
118 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.212
272
17 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.620
272
45 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.227
272
107 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.842
272
119 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.727
272
95 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.176
272
84 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.107
272
83 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.070
272
95 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.600
272
100 of 138
NCSU defence
NCSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.120
243
93 of 138
success rate
0.399
243
74 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.250
243
82 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.067
243
84 of 138
rush: success rate
0.446
243
106 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.967
243
86 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.270
243
101 of 138
pass: success rate
0.366
243
42 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.643
243
99 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.456
243
77 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.264
243
54 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.821
243
66 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.190
243
61 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
243
90 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.591
243
84 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.152
243
54 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.070
243
17 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.082
243
118 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.500
243
58 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs