Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). NDSU wins about 54% of the time at a number like ours.
NDSU
Games
4
Plays per game
65.0
Drives per game
10.2
SP+
7.8 (45th, offence 54th, defence 33rd)
Returning production
— (pass —, rush —, receiving —)
SJSU
Games
4
Plays per game
70.8
Drives per game
13.0
SP+
-15.1 (119th, offence 125th, defence 105th)
Returning production
4% (pass -8%, rush 36%, receiving 3%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
NDSU
SJSU
pass rate, all downs
40%121st
54%23rd
pass rate, standard downs
32%123rd
50%11th
pass rate, 1st down
29%129th
51%19th
no-huddle share
8%125th
78%49th
pass rate, passing downs
58%96th
62%77th
pass rate, red zone
36%78th
55%9th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.240th
24.5132nd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
NDSU offence
NDSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.157
260
70 of 138
success rate
0.400
260
107 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.414
260
15 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.040
260
99 of 138
rush: success rate
0.349
260
131 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.081
260
25 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.377
260
38 of 138
pass: success rate
0.485
260
38 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.794
260
20 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.456
260
103 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.275
260
101 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.826
260
107 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.191
260
94 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.692
260
97 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.083
260
60 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.115
260
32 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.069
260
28 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.046
260
54 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.400
260
72 of 138
SJSU offence
SJSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.082
283
100 of 138
success rate
0.396
283
111 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.224
283
69 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.014
283
118 of 138
rush: success rate
0.364
283
124 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.964
283
71 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.240
283
71 of 138
pass: success rate
0.429
283
78 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.447
283
102 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.462
283
98 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.273
283
103 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.182
283
61 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.186
283
91 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.571
283
124 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.360
283
104 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.152
283
82 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.085
283
65 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.067
283
104 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.300
283
45 of 138
NDSU defence
NDSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.156
240
5 of 138
success rate
0.392
240
68 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.024
240
9 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.231
240
7 of 138
rush: success rate
0.398
240
67 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.705
240
14 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.030
240
23 of 138
pass: success rate
0.390
240
67 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.438
240
40 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.488
240
100 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.184
240
4 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.646
240
51 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.180
240
48 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.714
240
68 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.722
240
4 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.183
240
101 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.104
240
77 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.079
240
112 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.300
240
97 of 138
SJSU defence
SJSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.066
287
75 of 138
success rate
0.436
287
104 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.070
287
19 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.106
287
96 of 138
rush: success rate
0.476
287
126 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.876
287
54 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.131
287
71 of 138
pass: success rate
0.418
287
89 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.278
287
8 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.510
287
120 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.270
287
57 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.931
287
86 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.169
287
37 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.833
287
115 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.433
287
74 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.136
287
34 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.070
287
18 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.066
287
88 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.200
287
18 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs