Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). HAW wins about 76% of the time at a number like ours.
HAW
Games
4
Plays per game
74.2
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-12.2 (114th, offence 111th, defence 108th)
Returning production
65% (pass 91%, rush 21%, receiving 52%)
NEV
Games
4
Plays per game
64.0
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-6.5 (95th, offence 103rd, defence 87th)
Returning production
36% (pass -130%, rush -12%, receiving 41%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
HAW
NEV
pass rate, all downs
68%1st
44%99th
pass rate, standard downs
61%1st
37%107th
pass rate, 1st down
61%2nd
42%76th
no-huddle share
36%93rd
73%57th
pass rate, passing downs
79%5th
59%92nd
pass rate, red zone
67%2nd
28%117th
seconds per play (own drives)
25.6126th
26.5111th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
HAW offence
HAW offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.042
297
112 of 138
success rate
0.384
297
117 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.125
297
116 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.008
297
116 of 138
rush: success rate
0.433
297
85 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.869
297
94 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.117
297
105 of 138
pass: success rate
0.373
297
114 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.274
297
131 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.439
297
120 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.291
297
89 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.138
297
65 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.175
297
80 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
297
38 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.190
297
113 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.168
297
104 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.108
297
110 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.061
297
87 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.700
297
23 of 138
NEV offence
NEV offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.093
256
96 of 138
success rate
0.414
256
99 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.295
256
44 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.218
256
35 of 138
rush: success rate
0.493
256
31 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.089
256
23 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.015
256
128 of 138
pass: success rate
0.324
256
133 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.691
256
35 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.466
256
95 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.305
256
76 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.236
256
52 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.197
256
100 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.640
256
112 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.045
256
62 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.129
256
47 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.074
256
42 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.055
256
74 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.300
256
28 of 138
HAW defence
HAW defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.213
268
124 of 138
success rate
0.466
268
126 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.227
268
70 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.250
268
131 of 138
rush: success rate
0.490
268
131 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.031
268
102 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.130
268
70 of 138
pass: success rate
0.435
268
103 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.447
268
47 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.526
268
128 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.306
268
95 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.437
268
134 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.110
268
3 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
268
83 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.773
268
98 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.134
268
30 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.075
268
29 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.060
268
65 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.800
268
117 of 138
NEV defence
NEV defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.149
304
100 of 138
success rate
0.421
304
90 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.120
304
31 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.125
304
108 of 138
rush: success rate
0.438
304
103 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.874
304
52 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.271
304
102 of 138
pass: success rate
0.422
304
93 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.535
304
64 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.474
304
89 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.305
304
91 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.272
304
120 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.146
304
22 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.625
304
33 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.240
304
61 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.112
304
7 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.063
304
6 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.049
304
39 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.800
304
43 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs