Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). UNLV wins about 58% of the time at a number like ours.
UNLV
Games
4
Plays per game
70.2
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
-2.4 (78th, offence 75th, defence 89th)
Returning production
15% (pass 4%, rush 31%, receiving 14%)
UNM
Games
4
Plays per game
66.0
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
7.7 (46th, offence 61st, defence 29th)
Returning production
58% (pass 74%, rush 71%, receiving 43%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
UNLV
UNM
pass rate, all downs
47%77th
35%132nd
pass rate, standard downs
40%84th
30%129th
pass rate, 1st down
38%100th
35%114th
no-huddle share
36%94th
22%108th
pass rate, passing downs
63%71st
46%133rd
pass rate, red zone
37%74th
19%130th
seconds per play (own drives)
27.299th
33.82nd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
UNLV offence
UNLV offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.053
281
107 of 138
success rate
0.384
281
118 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.219
281
73 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.061
281
89 of 138
rush: success rate
0.397
281
106 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.908
281
83 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.135
281
97 of 138
pass: success rate
0.389
281
102 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.610
281
53 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.456
281
104 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.227
281
127 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.219
281
56 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.130
281
25 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
281
108 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.955
281
123 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.157
281
91 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.096
281
89 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.060
281
83 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.600
281
40 of 138
UNM offence
UNM offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.163
264
67 of 138
success rate
0.417
264
96 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.235
264
66 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.264
264
19 of 138
rush: success rate
0.462
264
59 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.126
264
18 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.021
264
129 of 138
pass: success rate
0.337
264
129 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.542
264
71 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.473
264
90 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.287
264
94 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.285
264
44 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.140
264
38 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.889
264
8 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.273
264
52 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.117
264
34 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.087
264
69 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.030
264
14 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
59.600
264
138 of 138
UNLV defence
UNLV defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.076
267
76 of 138
success rate
0.404
267
76 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.154
267
43 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.124
267
106 of 138
rush: success rate
0.477
267
127 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.747
267
23 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.118
267
66 of 138
pass: success rate
0.351
267
29 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.696
267
110 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.466
267
84 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.286
267
79 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.606
267
138 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.133
267
13 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.833
267
117 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.478
267
77 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.161
267
70 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.071
267
20 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.090
267
128 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.700
267
115 of 138
UNM defence
UNM defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.146
237
7 of 138
success rate
0.321
237
13 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.374
237
116 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.145
237
18 of 138
rush: success rate
0.307
237
13 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.926
237
74 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.086
237
58 of 138
pass: success rate
0.351
237
28 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.828
237
126 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.368
237
12 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.247
237
36 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
1.917
237
3 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.246
237
119 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.500
237
8 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.583
237
21 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.249
237
137 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.169
237
133 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.080
237
116 of 138
opponent average starting field position
77.400
237
135 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs