Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). SJSU wins about 68% of the time at a number like ours.
NIU
Games
4
Plays per game
66.2
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-23.9 (133rd, offence 133rd, defence 129th)
Returning production
44% (pass 138%, rush 29%, receiving 93%)
SJSU
Games
4
Plays per game
70.8
Drives per game
13.0
SP+
-15.1 (119th, offence 125th, defence 105th)
Returning production
4% (pass -8%, rush 36%, receiving 3%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
NIU
SJSU
pass rate, all downs
60%4th
54%23rd
pass rate, standard downs
50%13th
50%11th
pass rate, 1st down
56%6th
51%19th
no-huddle share
55%79th
78%49th
pass rate, passing downs
79%6th
62%77th
pass rate, red zone
45%36th
55%9th
seconds per play (own drives)
27.593rd
24.5132nd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
NIU offence
NIU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.121
265
137 of 138
success rate
0.362
265
127 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.190
265
90 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.112
265
134 of 138
rush: success rate
0.381
265
117 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.877
265
93 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.007
265
122 of 138
pass: success rate
0.366
265
118 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.414
265
108 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.442
265
114 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.215
265
131 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.560
265
130 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.210
265
113 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.765
265
58 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.545
265
137 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.177
265
118 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.132
265
132 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.045
265
51 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.300
265
43 of 138
SJSU offence
SJSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.082
283
100 of 138
success rate
0.396
283
111 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.224
283
69 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.014
283
118 of 138
rush: success rate
0.364
283
124 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.964
283
71 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.240
283
71 of 138
pass: success rate
0.429
283
78 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.447
283
102 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.462
283
98 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.273
283
103 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.182
283
61 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.186
283
91 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.571
283
124 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.360
283
104 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.152
283
82 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.085
283
65 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.067
283
104 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.300
283
45 of 138
NIU defence
NIU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.159
268
109 of 138
success rate
0.444
268
111 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.323
268
106 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.110
268
98 of 138
rush: success rate
0.411
268
76 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.076
268
113 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.260
268
99 of 138
pass: success rate
0.492
268
128 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.489
268
55 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.478
268
92 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.372
268
130 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.902
268
77 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.202
268
79 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.579
268
19 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.731
268
96 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.127
268
19 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.086
268
47 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.041
268
19 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.700
268
42 of 138
SJSU defence
SJSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.066
287
75 of 138
success rate
0.436
287
104 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.070
287
19 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.106
287
96 of 138
rush: success rate
0.476
287
126 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.876
287
54 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.131
287
71 of 138
pass: success rate
0.418
287
89 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.278
287
8 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.510
287
120 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.270
287
57 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.931
287
86 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.169
287
37 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.833
287
115 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.433
287
74 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.136
287
34 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.070
287
18 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.066
287
88 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.200
287
18 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs