Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). UNM wins about 53% of the time at a number like ours.
UNM
Games
4
Plays per game
66.0
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
7.7 (46th, offence 61st, defence 29th)
Returning production
58% (pass 74%, rush 71%, receiving 43%)
NEV
Games
4
Plays per game
64.0
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-6.5 (95th, offence 103rd, defence 87th)
Returning production
36% (pass -130%, rush -12%, receiving 41%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
UNM
NEV
pass rate, all downs
35%132nd
44%99th
pass rate, standard downs
30%129th
37%107th
pass rate, 1st down
35%114th
42%76th
no-huddle share
22%108th
73%57th
pass rate, passing downs
46%133rd
59%92nd
pass rate, red zone
19%130th
28%117th
seconds per play (own drives)
33.82nd
26.5111th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
UNM offence
UNM offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.163
264
67 of 138
success rate
0.417
264
96 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.235
264
66 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.264
264
19 of 138
rush: success rate
0.462
264
59 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.126
264
18 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.021
264
129 of 138
pass: success rate
0.337
264
129 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.542
264
71 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.473
264
90 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.287
264
94 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.285
264
44 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.140
264
38 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.889
264
8 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.273
264
52 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.117
264
34 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.087
264
69 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.030
264
14 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
59.600
264
138 of 138
NEV offence
NEV offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.093
256
96 of 138
success rate
0.414
256
99 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.295
256
44 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.218
256
35 of 138
rush: success rate
0.493
256
31 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.089
256
23 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.015
256
128 of 138
pass: success rate
0.324
256
133 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.691
256
35 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.466
256
95 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.305
256
76 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.236
256
52 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.197
256
100 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.640
256
112 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.045
256
62 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.129
256
47 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.074
256
42 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.055
256
74 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.300
256
28 of 138
UNM defence
UNM defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.146
237
7 of 138
success rate
0.321
237
13 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.374
237
116 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.145
237
18 of 138
rush: success rate
0.307
237
13 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.926
237
74 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.086
237
58 of 138
pass: success rate
0.351
237
28 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.828
237
126 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.368
237
12 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.247
237
36 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
1.917
237
3 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.246
237
119 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.500
237
8 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.583
237
21 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.249
237
137 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.169
237
133 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.080
237
116 of 138
opponent average starting field position
77.400
237
135 of 138
NEV defence
NEV defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.149
304
100 of 138
success rate
0.421
304
90 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.120
304
31 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.125
304
108 of 138
rush: success rate
0.438
304
103 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.874
304
52 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.271
304
102 of 138
pass: success rate
0.422
304
93 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.535
304
64 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.474
304
89 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.305
304
91 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.272
304
120 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.146
304
22 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.625
304
33 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.240
304
61 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.112
304
7 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.063
304
6 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.049
304
39 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.800
304
43 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs