Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). NDSU wins about 68% of the time at a number like ours.
UTEP
Games
4
Plays per game
56.5
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-24.0 (134th, offence 128th, defence 135th)
Returning production
-1% (pass 18%, rush -31%, receiving 15%)
NDSU
Games
4
Plays per game
65.0
Drives per game
10.2
SP+
7.8 (45th, offence 54th, defence 33rd)
Returning production
— (pass —, rush —, receiving —)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
UTEP
NDSU
pass rate, all downs
43%108th
40%121st
pass rate, standard downs
40%81st
32%123rd
pass rate, 1st down
44%57th
29%129th
no-huddle share
75%53rd
8%125th
pass rate, passing downs
48%130th
58%96th
pass rate, red zone
46%30th
36%78th
seconds per play (own drives)
31.221st
30.240th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
UTEP offence
UTEP offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.179
226
138 of 138
success rate
0.367
226
124 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.092
226
127 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.197
226
136 of 138
rush: success rate
0.357
226
128 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.867
226
95 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.037
226
131 of 138
pass: success rate
0.402
226
97 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.371
226
118 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.442
226
115 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.200
226
135 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.516
226
133 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.240
226
131 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.500
226
135 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.700
226
136 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.217
226
137 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.173
226
137 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.044
226
48 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.800
226
100 of 138
NDSU offence
NDSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.157
260
70 of 138
success rate
0.400
260
107 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.414
260
15 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.040
260
99 of 138
rush: success rate
0.349
260
131 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.081
260
25 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.377
260
38 of 138
pass: success rate
0.485
260
38 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.794
260
20 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.456
260
103 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.275
260
101 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.826
260
107 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.191
260
94 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.692
260
97 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.083
260
60 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.115
260
32 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.069
260
28 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.046
260
54 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.400
260
72 of 138
UTEP defence
UTEP defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.252
254
130 of 138
success rate
0.472
254
131 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.209
254
63 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.136
254
112 of 138
rush: success rate
0.439
254
104 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.922
254
71 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.512
254
137 of 138
pass: success rate
0.528
254
138 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.571
254
78 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.508
254
116 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.369
254
129 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.969
254
91 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.223
254
105 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
254
52 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.500
254
128 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.126
254
17 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.094
254
59 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.031
254
4 of 138
opponent average starting field position
67.400
254
11 of 138
NDSU defence
NDSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.156
240
5 of 138
success rate
0.392
240
68 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.024
240
9 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.231
240
7 of 138
rush: success rate
0.398
240
67 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.705
240
14 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.030
240
23 of 138
pass: success rate
0.390
240
67 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.438
240
40 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.488
240
100 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.184
240
4 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.646
240
51 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.180
240
48 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.714
240
68 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.722
240
4 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.183
240
101 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.104
240
77 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.079
240
112 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.300
240
97 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs