Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). HAW wins about 80% of the time at a number like ours.
HAW
Games
4
Plays per game
74.2
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-12.2 (114th, offence 111th, defence 108th)
Returning production
65% (pass 91%, rush 21%, receiving 52%)
NIU
Games
4
Plays per game
66.2
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-23.9 (133rd, offence 133rd, defence 129th)
Returning production
44% (pass 138%, rush 29%, receiving 93%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
HAW
NIU
pass rate, all downs
68%1st
60%4th
pass rate, standard downs
61%1st
50%13th
pass rate, 1st down
61%2nd
56%6th
no-huddle share
36%93rd
55%79th
pass rate, passing downs
79%5th
79%6th
pass rate, red zone
67%2nd
45%36th
seconds per play (own drives)
25.6126th
27.593rd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
HAW offence
HAW offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.042
297
112 of 138
success rate
0.384
297
117 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.125
297
116 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.008
297
116 of 138
rush: success rate
0.433
297
85 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.869
297
94 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.117
297
105 of 138
pass: success rate
0.373
297
114 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.274
297
131 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.439
297
120 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.291
297
89 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.138
297
65 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.175
297
80 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
297
38 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.190
297
113 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.168
297
104 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.108
297
110 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.061
297
87 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.700
297
23 of 138
NIU offence
NIU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.121
265
137 of 138
success rate
0.362
265
127 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.190
265
90 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.112
265
134 of 138
rush: success rate
0.381
265
117 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.877
265
93 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.007
265
122 of 138
pass: success rate
0.366
265
118 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.414
265
108 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.442
265
114 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.215
265
131 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.560
265
130 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.210
265
113 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.765
265
58 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.545
265
137 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.177
265
118 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.132
265
132 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.045
265
51 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.300
265
43 of 138
HAW defence
HAW defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.213
268
124 of 138
success rate
0.466
268
126 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.227
268
70 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.250
268
131 of 138
rush: success rate
0.490
268
131 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.031
268
102 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.130
268
70 of 138
pass: success rate
0.435
268
103 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.447
268
47 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.526
268
128 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.306
268
95 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.437
268
134 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.110
268
3 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
268
83 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.773
268
98 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.134
268
30 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.075
268
29 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.060
268
65 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.800
268
117 of 138
NIU defence
NIU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.159
268
109 of 138
success rate
0.444
268
111 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.323
268
106 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.110
268
98 of 138
rush: success rate
0.411
268
76 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.076
268
113 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.260
268
99 of 138
pass: success rate
0.492
268
128 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.489
268
55 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.478
268
92 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.372
268
130 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.902
268
77 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.202
268
79 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.579
268
19 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.731
268
96 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.127
268
19 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.086
268
47 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.041
268
19 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.700
268
42 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs