Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). NDSU wins about 76% of the time at a number like ours.
NEV
Games
4
Plays per game
64.0
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-6.5 (95th, offence 103rd, defence 87th)
Returning production
36% (pass -130%, rush -12%, receiving 41%)
NDSU
Games
4
Plays per game
65.0
Drives per game
10.2
SP+
7.8 (45th, offence 54th, defence 33rd)
Returning production
— (pass —, rush —, receiving —)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
NEV
NDSU
pass rate, all downs
44%99th
40%121st
pass rate, standard downs
37%107th
32%123rd
pass rate, 1st down
42%76th
29%129th
no-huddle share
73%57th
8%125th
pass rate, passing downs
59%92nd
58%96th
pass rate, red zone
28%117th
36%78th
seconds per play (own drives)
26.5111th
30.240th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
NEV offence
NEV offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.093
256
96 of 138
success rate
0.414
256
99 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.295
256
44 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.218
256
35 of 138
rush: success rate
0.493
256
31 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.089
256
23 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.015
256
128 of 138
pass: success rate
0.324
256
133 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.691
256
35 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.466
256
95 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.305
256
76 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.236
256
52 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.197
256
100 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.640
256
112 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.045
256
62 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.129
256
47 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.074
256
42 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.055
256
74 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.300
256
28 of 138
NDSU offence
NDSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.157
260
70 of 138
success rate
0.400
260
107 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.414
260
15 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.040
260
99 of 138
rush: success rate
0.349
260
131 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.081
260
25 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.377
260
38 of 138
pass: success rate
0.485
260
38 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.794
260
20 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.456
260
103 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.275
260
101 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.826
260
107 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.191
260
94 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.692
260
97 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.083
260
60 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.115
260
32 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.069
260
28 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.046
260
54 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.400
260
72 of 138
NEV defence
NEV defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.149
304
100 of 138
success rate
0.421
304
90 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.120
304
31 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.125
304
108 of 138
rush: success rate
0.438
304
103 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.874
304
52 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.271
304
102 of 138
pass: success rate
0.422
304
93 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.535
304
64 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.474
304
89 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.305
304
91 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.272
304
120 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.146
304
22 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.625
304
33 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.240
304
61 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.112
304
7 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.063
304
6 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.049
304
39 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.800
304
43 of 138
NDSU defence
NDSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.156
240
5 of 138
success rate
0.392
240
68 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.024
240
9 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.231
240
7 of 138
rush: success rate
0.398
240
67 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.705
240
14 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.030
240
23 of 138
pass: success rate
0.390
240
67 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.438
240
40 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.488
240
100 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.184
240
4 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.646
240
51 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.180
240
48 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.714
240
68 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.722
240
4 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.183
240
101 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.104
240
77 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.079
240
112 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.300
240
97 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs