Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). AF wins about 81% of the time at a number like ours.
AF
Games
3
Plays per game
77.7
Drives per game
10.7
SP+
-3.4 (83rd, offence 74th, defence 94th)
Returning production
57% (pass 102%, rush 70%, receiving 13%)
NIU
Games
4
Plays per game
66.2
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-23.9 (133rd, offence 133rd, defence 129th)
Returning production
44% (pass 138%, rush 29%, receiving 93%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
AF
NIU
pass rate, all downs
16%137th
60%4th
pass rate, standard downs
12%138th
50%13th
pass rate, 1st down
10%138th
56%6th
no-huddle share
7%129th
55%79th
pass rate, passing downs
30%137th
79%6th
pass rate, red zone
16%134th
45%36th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.243rd
27.593rd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
AF offence
AF offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.297
233
22 of 138
success rate
0.489
233
32 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.083
233
129 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.336
233
8 of 138
rush: success rate
0.511
233
20 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.966
233
70 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.290
233
59 of 138
pass: success rate
0.417
233
86 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.877
233
9 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.554
233
24 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.286
233
95 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.836
233
6 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.068
233
1 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.808
233
33 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.316
233
47 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.064
233
3 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.021
233
2 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.043
233
43 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.300
233
26 of 138
NIU offence
NIU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.121
265
137 of 138
success rate
0.362
265
127 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.190
265
90 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.112
265
134 of 138
rush: success rate
0.381
265
117 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.877
265
93 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.007
265
122 of 138
pass: success rate
0.366
265
118 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.414
265
108 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.442
265
114 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.215
265
131 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.560
265
130 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.210
265
113 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.765
265
58 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.545
265
137 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.177
265
118 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.132
265
132 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.045
265
51 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.300
265
43 of 138
AF defence
AF defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.004
173
53 of 138
success rate
0.347
173
27 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.430
173
130 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.125
173
107 of 138
rush: success rate
0.398
173
65 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.118
173
122 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.064
173
15 of 138
pass: success rate
0.312
173
14 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.867
173
131 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.411
173
37 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.230
173
29 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.866
173
71 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.216
173
95 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
173
44 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.000
173
111 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.150
173
49 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.075
173
28 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.075
173
101 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.900
173
44 of 138
NIU defence
NIU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.159
268
109 of 138
success rate
0.444
268
111 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.323
268
106 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.110
268
98 of 138
rush: success rate
0.411
268
76 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.076
268
113 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.260
268
99 of 138
pass: success rate
0.492
268
128 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.489
268
55 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.478
268
92 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.372
268
130 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.902
268
77 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.202
268
79 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.579
268
19 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.731
268
96 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.127
268
19 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.086
268
47 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.041
268
19 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.700
268
42 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs